The supply of natural rubber may remain tight. The demand for imported tires from my country continues to recover. Driven by domestic policies, the demand for heavy trucks and passenger vehicles is strong, which will boost natural rubber consumption. The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate in the near future.
(1) The supply of natural rubber is tight
Domestic rubber tapping in Yunnan and Hainan was normal this month. Thailand has entered the rainy season abroad, and the weather in the southern production areas began to improve in the second half of the year. There was more rain in the northeast production areas, which had a certain impact on the progress of rubber tapping, and the supply of new rubber was tight as a whole.
(2) The spot price of natural rubber rose
In August, in the domestic market, the average price of all latex in Shanghai and Shandong markets was 10,888 yuan per ton, up 13.1% month-on-month and 5.2% year-on-year; the average price of mixed rubber in Shandong market was 10490 yuan per ton, up 5.5% month-on-month and down 2.7% year-on-year. In the Southeast Asian market, the average price of RSS3 in Thailand was US$1,577 per ton, equivalent to 10,800 yuan per ton, up 7.8% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year; the average price of SIR20 in Indonesia was US$1,293 per ton, equivalent to RMB 8,855 per ton, up 7.7% month-on-month. A decrease of 3.0% year-on-year; the average price of Malaysian SMR20 was US$1,349 per ton, equivalent to RMB 9,238 per ton, up 8.6% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year.
(3) Natural rubber futures prices rose
In August, the average price of Shanghai Futures Exchange’s main contract (2101) was 12,438 yuan per ton, up 17.4% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year. The average settlement price of the main rubber contract of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (2012) was 176.4 yen per kilogram, equivalent to 11,395 yuan per ton, up 12.9% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year.
(4) Imports of natural rubber and mixed rubber both increase
According to customs statistics, in July, my country imported 153,200 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 16.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 48.4% year-on-year; imports of mixed rubber were 355,500 tons, an increase of 36.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times. From January to July, imported natural rubber was 1.0328 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%, and imports were US$1.33 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%; imported mixed rubber was 1.8994 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and imports were US$5.741 billion. This is an increase of 1.9 times.
(5) The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and rise in the later period
In terms of supply, in September, the main producing country Thailand is still in the rainy season, and the rubber tapping progress will be affected to a certain extent. At the same time, the national emergency caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic will be extended to the end of September, and there may be a shortage of rubber workers. In addition, Thailand’s second stage rubber The price guarantee plan is much smaller than the previous year, which will reduce the enthusiasm for rubber tapping. The epidemic situation in other major producing countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar is still severe, and the release of natural rubber production is slow. It is expected that the global natural rubber supply will continue to remain tight. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan are in the peak production period, and the supply of new rubber will continue to increase, but the overall tight supply situation still cannot be changed.
In terms of demand, the EU automobile sales market has gradually recovered recently, and domestic tire export demand has improved. As various regions speed up the operation of national III and below emission standards, the obsolescence and renewal of heavy-duty diesel trucks and other related policies are successively introduced, and the domestic downstream heavy truck sales are expected to continue to grow. In addition, affected by the “Golden Nine, Silver and Ten” seasonal factors, the passenger car market will continue to grow in August to a large extent, and sales will continue to increase. It is expected that the operating rate of tire companies is expected to continue to increase, which will further increase natural rubber consumption and demand. The overall end continues to maintain a steady and positive trend. Based on comprehensive judgment, the price of natural rubber is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the later period.