1．Market Price
| NR Futures Weekly Average Price | |||
| SHFE RU2101(unit: RMB/mt) | INE NR2101(unit: RMB/mt) | TOCOM RSS(unit: yen/kg) | |
| Dec 4-Dec 10 | 14,579.00 | 10,535.00 | 242.20 |
| Dec 11-Dec 17 | 14,552.00 | 10,501.00 | 239.66 |
| Change | -27.00 | -34.00 | -2.54 |
| Change rate | -0.19% | -0.32% | -1.05% |
Natural Rubber Spot Market Price
| China Mainstream Market NR Weekly Average Price(unit: RMB/mt) | |||||
| Market | Shanghai | Shandong | |||
| Grade | SCRWF | SVR 3L | RSS 3 | STR20 mixed | SCR10 |
| Dec 4-Dec 10 | 13,680 | 13,435 | 18,390 | 11,785 | 12,670 |
| Dec 11-Dec 17 | 13,690 | 13,530 | 18,365 | 11,505 | 12,510 |
| Change | +10 | +95 | -25 | -280 | -160 |
| Change rate | +0.07% | +0.71% | -0.14% | -2.38% | -1.26% |
2. Market Review
This week, SCI NR price index moved up. As of December 17, the index was 1,123.88 points, up 67.61 points or 6.4% from December 10. Natural rubber spot prices changes slightly, and the market fluctuated due to a lack of guiding news. The supply-demand conflicts weren’t severe and showed no great change. The overall transactions were only average.
This week, Shanghai natural rubber futures fluctuated. Recently, the commodities markets had performed strongly, especially the energy and chemical products prices rose significantly. Hence, investors showed less attention to the rubber market. After the earlier big price rise, natural rubber market moved sideways.
As of December 17, the weekly average price of NR dominant futures contract at SHFE was RMB 14,552/mt, down RMB 27/mt or 0.19% from last week. The weekly average price of NR2101 was RMB 10,501/mt, down RMB 34/mt or 0.32% from last week.
3. Market Forecast
Next week, Shanghai natural rubber futures will fluctuate. Recently, the commodities markets have performed strongly, hence investors pay less attention to rubber market. From the perspective of fundamentals, there have been a shortage of shipping containers, and some shipments are delayed. The natural rubber imports decrease. As a result, the social inventory in Qingdao is decreasing, which supports the market. Besides, some downstream factories started to stock up in November, and some even purchased cargos to be delivered in February of 2021. In the near term, they will purchase feedstock properly. However, due to the air pollution abatement measures and electricity limitation policy, some tire companies reduce or even suspend production. The tire consumption is also in the slack season. All these suppress the magnitude of natural rubber price rebound. It’s predicted that the Shanghai natural rubber futures will fluctuate in the short term, and the price will be supported by the 60-day moving average.
