Recently, the United States has published a list of 25% tariffs on Chinese imports of $16 billion. This marks the latest upgrade of Sino-US trade friction since US President Trump officially signed a trade memorandum with China at the White House on March 23. The Chinese government has adopted counter-measures to impose tariffs of about 20 billion, 20%, 10%, and 5% on 5,207 tax items originating in the United States.
Among the 5,207 tax items, there are more than 100 kinds of rubber and rubber products, including general-purpose synthetic rubber such as styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber, and special rubbers and elastomers such as nitrile rubber, ethylene-propylene rubber and butyl rubber. There are 21 kinds. Due to the different supply and demand patterns of their respective products, there is also a big change in the external dependence of each product.
The reporter learned that the general-purpose synthetic rubbers such as styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber have relatively low external dependence, but the special synthetic rubbers such as nitrile rubber, ethylene-propylene rubber and butyl rubber have relatively high external dependence, especially ethylene-propylene. Rubber, the dependence on foreign countries is as high as 63.28%. “China’s imports of ethylene-propylene rubber from the United States accounted for 34.83% of the total imports of ethylene-propylene rubber, accounting for 22.04% of total domestic consumption. Second, the relatively high proportion is butyl rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber, China Imports from the United States accounted for 2.59% and 2.21% of total domestic consumption, respectively,” said Wang Yongtao, a rubber analyst at Jinlian.
Wang Yongtao pointed out that the addition of similar products will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25%, 20%, 10% and 5%, depending on the tariff code. For example, among styrene-butadiene rubber, 40021919, which has a relatively high proportion of imports from the United States, is proposed to impose a tariff rate of 5%, while the proportion of 40021912, which is relatively low, is 25%. Ethylene-propylene rubber has a relatively high proportion of imports from the United States, with 40027010 and 40027090 being 44.25% and 28.54% respectively, and the proposed tariff rate is 5%. Among the butyl rubber, 40023910 imports from the United States accounted for 25.93%, the proposed tariff range was 5%, and the other two tariff codes were 10% and 20% respectively. “From the perspective of the taxation of different tariff codes, the amount of imports from the United States is the main factor determining the extent of the increase, and the adjustment elasticity of the products is also adjusted accordingly. Among the products with tariffs, styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber The domestic production capacity is 1.92 million tons and 1.58 million tons respectively. The output in 2017 is 1.08 million tons and 860,000 tons respectively. The remarkable substitutability makes the tariffs of products such as 40021912, 40021990 and 40022010 25%. The alternative elasticity of ethylene-propylene rubber is relatively small, and its tariff increase is only 5%. Wang Yongtao said that although the products with higher substitution are facing higher tariffs, the impact on the domestic market is smaller, after all, It can be purchased from the nearest country, which is conducive to the development of related industries in the country, and of course can be imported from other countries. For products with weaker alternatives, although the taxation is smaller, the impact is rather large, such as ethylene-propylene rubber. The resources of Dow Ethylene-propylene rubber part of the tax number are relatively tight, and the price is expected to be high.
Wang Yongtao believes that in the future, if the implementation of tariff measures is implemented, the market will certainly experience a period of pain, especially for products with weaker alternatives. However, from the perspective of the development of the domestic rubber industry, the production capacity of styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber and SBS has been surplus. What is lacking is only some products with higher technical thresholds. In terms of special rubber, the consumption of ethylene-propylene rubber in 2017 is 330,000 tons. In 2018, with the production of ethylene-propylene rubber equipment, the production capacity will be close to 400,000 tons, and domestic supply is also increasing. The same is true for nitrile rubber and butyl rubber. With the breakthrough of the relevant industry technology threshold and the increase in production, the pain caused by taxation will gradually pass. “Because the United States will tax China before it will have an impact on China’s rubber exports, but because China’s exports to the United States are relatively small, the impact will be weaker.” Wang Yongtao pointed out that it is worth noting that in the downstream industry Among them, the main export destination country of tires includes the United States. According to the US government’s taxation list of 200 billion US dollars of goods, truck and bus tires and passenger car tires are included. Therefore, it is not good news for the tire industry. Natural rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber, halogenated butyl rubber and other products are also not good.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/45038.html
