First, the commodity index
On February 28th, the index of natural rubber (12240, -250.00, -2.00%) was 35.26, which was the same as yesterday, which was 64.74% lower than the highest point in the cycle (2011-09-01), compared with November 25, 2015. The lowest point of the day was 28.15 points, an increase of 25.26%. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
Second, the market trend
Since mid-January 2019, parts of the rubber-producing areas in Southeast Asia have been stopped. The governments of various countries have continued to support the rubber industry. The Sino-US trade situation has improved. Many favorable factors have driven the natural rubber. The natural rubber has recently oscillated stronger. After the night market rose more than 400 points on the 18th, Hujiao closed up 5.36% on the 19th, which is the biggest single in the near future. The increase was followed by a strong shock and a contraction in the next few days.
Global natural rubber entered the annual minimum production and the inventory consumption season, and the multiple factors superimposed the impact. Tianjiao rose sharply this month. According to the monitoring data of the business community (100ppi.com), in February, natural rubber (standard) Hainan Baodao mainstream The average price is 12,000 yuan/ton on the 25th, and the lowest is 10962.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, which is up 9.46%.
Third, the current comparison
Since the night of February 11th, Hujiao has fluctuated and increased. After a sharp rise, it has fluctuated strongly. The main contract of this month, RU1905, rose sharply from the lowest point of 11,305 yuan/ton to 12,855 yuan/ton, an increase of about 13.7%. In terms of spot rubber, after mid-February, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia have been cut, and the domestically produced areas have not yet started tapping. Natural rubber production is gradually entering the annual minimum production season, and downstream enterprises are gradually starting production after the Spring Festival holiday. The relevant policies were promulgated, and the news of the three-party conference in Southeast Asia continued to stimulate. The natural rubber market was strong, and it is currently entering the inventory consumption season. Recently, the market generally believes that Tianjiao is in a strong trend stage and continues its strong shock.
Fourth, factor analysis
Macro factors:
China’s macroeconomic policy expects to stabilize economic development. The central bank emphasizes that “stable monetary policy should remain moderately tight, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, grasp the degree of macroeconomic regulation, and achieve comprehensive balance among multiple objectives.” China adheres to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and substantially reduces taxes and fees.
Production:
In Southeast Asia, Vietnam entered the cut-off period in mid-January. Thailand and the northern part of Thailand have been completely shut down. Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand have begun to transition to a reduced production period. In the first quarter, the amount of rubber produced in Southeast Asia has entered a low season. In the domestic production areas, Yunnan and Hainan have not started tapping. The global production of natural rubber is generally reduced, at a low level during the year, and the supply side is reduced, and the natural rubber will be in the consumption season.
Inventory:
The rubber inventory data of Qingdao Free Trade Zone has been suspended since mid-October 2018, and the level of RMB mixed rubber stocks outside the bonded zone is at a high level. In terms of futures inventories, natural rubber stocks increased by 855 tons. Overall, natural rubber stocks remain high.
Downstream demand:
From a fundamental point of view, the Southeast Asian region has stopped cutting, and the output of natural rubber has gradually decreased. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream tire factories gradually started to work. After the tire enterprises consumed the pre-holiday inventory, they gradually increased their purchases, and the market trading atmosphere gradually recovered. Before the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 10 departments jointly issued the “Implementation Plan to Further Optimize Supply and Promote Stable Growth of Consumption and Promote the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market (2019)”. The market generally believes that this is a new version of China’s automobile to the countryside policy in 2009. Stimulating policies, tire demand will be upgraded, and expected positives give market confidence.
Related Products:
On February 28th, the butadiene commodity index was 33.38, which was 0.08 points lower than yesterday, which was 66.62% lower than the highest point in the cycle (2011-09-13), which was higher than the lowest point of 18.65 points on February 5, 2015. 78.98%. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
Related policies and data:
Tripartite meeting: According to the latest news on February 22, the International Rubber Council, composed of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, announced the decision to implement “rubber export restrictions”. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia announced an annual reduction of 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons of rubber exports in response to the downward trend in international market prices. Among the total reductions in exports, Thailand accounts for 52%, Indonesia accounts for 38%, and Malaysia accounts for 10%. It is understood that in addition to cutting exports, the three countries also intend to respond to international market price declines by stimulating domestic demand and supply-side management of planting links.
China: On February 19th, the Central Document No. 1 “Several Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Adhering to the Priority of Agricultural and Rural Development to Do a Good Job in “Three Rural Issues” was published. Many documents involved the natural rubber industry: on the basis of improving quality and efficiency, Consolidate the production capacity of cotton (15385, 90.00, 0.59%), oil, sugar and natural rubber. Accelerate and support agriculture to go global, strengthen the “One Belt, One Road” agricultural international cooperation, actively expand the domestic shortage of agricultural products, expand diversified import channels, foster a group of multinational agricultural enterprise groups, and raise the level of agricultural cooperation. Increase the comprehensive management of anti-smuggling of agricultural products. Continue to consolidate natural rubber production capacity and change the long-term dependence on imports.
India: Indonesian Economic Coordinator Darwin said that as the world’s three major rubber producers and exporters, the governments of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have signed a principled document of concerted action and are awaiting approval from their respective legislative bodies. “It is expected that Shanghai International Rubber Futures Market will have excessive supply in the near future. Therefore, the main purpose of this export reduction is to reduce supply and push rubber prices back to the basic level. At present, the price per kilogram of 1.45 US dollars is too low, and Indonesian rubber farmers can only even per kilogram. Get a gain of $0.50,” Dalmin said.
Thailand: From the recent media view, “multiple factors superimposed on the economic slowdown in Southeast Asia”, the report said that the GDP growth rate of the five Southeast Asian countries has been expanding since 2015, but the actual growth rate in 2018 has decreased by 0.3 from the previous year. percentage point. In addition to domestic factors, according to an official from the Asian Development Bank’s Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, the negative effects of trade friction began to appear in the second half of 2018. According to the report, in 2018, the number of container ships loaded with natural rubber at Lancang Port, Thailand’s largest trading port, was less than in previous years. The top executive of Shidong Rubber Co., Ltd., the largest natural rubber producer in Thailand, also believes that it will no longer be able to rely on raw material exports in the future.
V. Forecast of the market outlook
The natural rubber analysts of the business community believe that the superposition of several factors, such as the off-season rubber production, favorable policies, downstream start-up, and tripartite meetings, has led to a sharp rebound in natural rubber. Traders generally believe that this is the best time in a year. A good time for a big rise, the market has sufficient confidence. At the moment, the short-term market of natural rubber may continue to ferment; however, the basic supply and demand contradiction of natural rubber has not been fundamentally resolved. In addition to the cost impact, the shock space of natural rubber prices will be greatly constrained, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term. India, Malaysia and Thailand have decided to reduce the export of rubber by 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons per year, and increase measures such as stimulating domestic demand and supply side management of the planting link to cope with the fluctuation of natural rubber international market. The market has responded to this, but it is obviously tired. Recently, natural rubber shocks continue, and the market is looking forward to more favorable factors.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/47903.html
