China Weekly Summary: Natural Rubber Market Moved down (Sep 17 – Sep 23)

China Mainstream Market Natural Rubber Weekly Average Price

Unit: RMB/mt

Market	Shanghai Related Post Japanese rubber futures lower January 28, 2025 Japanese rubber futures rise on supply woes January 24, 2025 Japanese rubber futures gain on higher oil prices, supply worries January 17, 2025 Japanese rubber futures higher January 14, 2025		Shandong		Yunnan
Grade	SCRWF	SVR3L mixed	RSS3	STR20 mixed	SCR10
This week	12,663	12,656	16,375	12,063	11,800
Last week	12,640	12,670	16,360	12,010	11,795
Change	+23.00	-14.00	+15.00	+53.00	+5.00
Change rate	+0.18%	-0.11%	+0.09%	+0.44%	+0.04%

USD-Denominated Market Price of Natural Rubber

Unit: $/mt

Market Review

SCI NR price index was 989.45 points as of September 22, down 33.43 or 3.27% from a week ago. This week, the average price of natural rubber products fluctuated within a narrow range, and Shanghai natural rubber futures prices greatly declined on September 22. Meanwhile, prices of natural emulsion remained firm, backed by the tight spot supply.

This week, Shanghai natural rubber futures prices declined, and the price of RU2201 hit a new low from October 2020. The weekly average price of RU2201 was RMB 13,460/mt, down RMB 209/mt or 1.53% from a week ago. The weekly average price of NR2111 was RMB 10,905/mt, down RMB 77/mt or 0.70% from a week ago. RU2201 closed Thursday at RMB 13,340/mt, down RMB 490/mt from a week ago. NR2111 price was RMB 10,745/mt on Thursday, down RMB 355/mt from a week ago.

Although the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao further dropped, Shanghai natural rubber futures prices still went down due to the tepid demand.

Market Forecast

Next week, Shanghai natural rubber dominant contract prices will fluctuate in the range of RMB 13,000-13,500/mt.

Supply: The new rubber supply will rise with the approach of the production peak season. However, China’s natural rubber import market will underperform, as China’s natural rubber demand is average and the shipping transportation is tough. Moreover, the spot inventory will remain low, underpinning China’s natural rubber prices. On the whole, China’s natural rubber supply will gradually rise with the new rubber output increment and import arrivals.

Demand: Operating rates at tire enterprises will be unstable due to external factors. With the approach of the National Day holiday, it is estimated that the operating rate of the tire industry will greatly decline next week. Moreover, the automobile production and sales volume will gradually decline. On the whole, the demand for natural rubber will be sluggish.

On the whole, China’s natural rubber supply-demand fundamentals will underperform, weighing on China’s natural rubber market. In the short term, the demand for natural rubber will further weaken due to external factors. As seen from the supply side, the pressure from new rubber output increment will be stronger than the support from the decline in spot inventory, so it will be tough for China’s natural rubber prices to go up. SCI reckons that Shanghai natural rubber dominant contract prices will fluctuate in the range of RMB 13,000-13,500/mt.

Source: SCI99.com