Major Gulf markets mixed on strong US jobs data

Major stock markets in the Gulf were mixed in early trade on Monday, as unexpectedly strong US jobs data reinforced expectations of prolonged elevated interest rates in the world’s largest economy.

The hawkish jolt from the jobs data also raised the stakes in relation to consumer price figures on Wednesday where any rise in the core measure greater than the forecast of 0.2% would threaten to close the door on easing altogether.

Markets have already scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to just 27 basis points for all of 2025, with the Fed now seen cutting 100 basis points less than many had hoped for this time last year.

At least five Fed officials are on the docket to speak this week and offer their reaction to the jobs surprise, with the influential Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams appearing on Wednesday.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is usually guided by the Fed’s decisions as most regional currencies are pegged to the US dollar.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index eased 0.1%, hit by a 1.2% fall in Saudi Arabian Mining Company.

In Qatar, the index dropped 0.6%, with the Gulf’s biggest lender Qatar National Bank losing 0.7% ahead of its earnings announcement.

Most Gulf markets fall after stronger than expected US jobs data

Dubai’s main share index gained 0.3%, buoyed by a 14.7% surge in logistics firm Aramex. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ plans to launch a cash takeover offer for Aramex, bidding for the shares it does not already own in the Dubai-listed courier firm. The Abu Dhabi index added 0.2%.

Oil prices – a catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets – continued to climb on supply concerns as Russia’s sea borne exports hit their lowest since August 2023, even before the latest round of US sanctions.