I. Price trend
According to the monitoring data: November, Natural rubber (14765,-30.00,-0.2%) period of the overall stock market shocks, early a larger amplitude, the middle of the callback continued to fall, the end of the concussion upward, the overall fluctuation amplitude is larger. At the beginning of the month (1st), 16, the domestic market price of the whole milk gel in eastern China 11574.29 Yuan/ton, the end of the month (30th) The main prices 11991.67 yuan/ton; /ton, the lowest price appeared on 15th, for 11525 yuan/ton, the maximum amplitude of the month reached 4.95%.
II. Market Analysis
According to the business community Commodity Index monitoring data, November 30, the natural rubber (superscript i) commodity index of 35.56, compared to 29th down 0.22 points, the cycle of the highest point 100 points down 64.44%, compared with the November 25, 2015 nadir 28.15 points rose 26.32%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
Futures: 30th, the main contract of Shanghai Glue 1805 to fall back, the end of the plate fell, closed at 13915 yuan/ton, fell 1.59%, increase the warehouse 12210 hands, Deal 525600 hands.
In terms of price, the mainstream price of whole milk in Shanghai market is 11900-12000 yuan/ton; Vietnam 3L price 12000-12100 yuan/ton; Thailand 3rd tobacco slice 14000-14100 yuan/ton. Thai raw Materials Market raw film 42.65-42.77 Baht/kg, Thai three tobacco tablets 45.3-45.35 Baht/kg; field glue 44.5 baht/kg; cup gum 35 baht/kg. Synthetic rubber: East China’s gross petrochemical benzene rubber 1502 Market price 14200 yuan/ton;
Import and export, ANRPC data show that January-October member countries of gum exports increased by 8.3% to 7.999 million tons year-on-year. Thailand’s exports rose 1.4%, Indonesia grew 11.2%, Vietnam grew 11%, and Malaysia grew 15.6%. The overall export volume of gum 2017 was 492,000 tonnes more than 2016. Domestic statistics show that in January-October, China’s rubber imports of 5.65 million tons, the year-on-year growth of 25%, rubber imports increased significantly, according to the law of rubber imports, the current November and the next December is the annual peak of import volume.
Output, ANRPC data showed that in January-October, the world’s natural rubber production grew 5% to 10.429 million tonnes year-on-year, 605,000 tons more than 2016. The world’s major producers of gum production have increased: the Vietnamese production growth rate is significant, up to 11.3%, while the growth of China’s gum production is also 7.6%, Thailand’s growth rates remain at 1.9%, Indonesia’s slowest growth rate, only 0.7%. The current domestic production zone has entered the cut season, Thailand and other rubber-producing countries in the rainy season, but Thailand’s market supply of plastic is very abundant, the overall oversupply situation is still continuing.
Inventory, the September mid-June after the Qingdao free trade Zone rubber inventory continued to rise. As of November 16, the Qingdao bonded area inventory increased by 3.6% to 20.61 tonnes at the beginning of the month, with natural rubber reduced by 1.5% to 11. 460,000 tons, synthetic rubber increased 11.3% to 87,500 tons, composite plastic maintenance 4,000 tons unchanged. There is no significant improvement in domestic supply and demand. Last week, the last period of rubber stock increased by 500,000 hands, this month, about 210,000 tons of warehouse slips into the spot, delivery volume of about 50,000 tons, futures inventory apparent data in this week’s sharp decline, the futures panel pressure has eased, but the warehouse single turn now, the spot market supply and demand and caused pressure, spot gum rising difficulties.
On demand, ANRPC data showed that the world’s estimated consumption growth was only 1.1% to 10.73 million tonnes year-on-year, with China falling 0.9%. At present, the consumption of the downstream enterprises is still much lower than in previous years, tire enterprise start rate, although the chain has been rising for several weeks, but the current has entered the production of tire enterprises in the off-season, the terminal with the use of, the chain has been the basic technology, downstream demand is still very weak; tire enterprise Liquidity Capital tight, coupled with environmental policy requirements, The purchase of the day plastic to form a greater limit. Overall relative to the supply, the demand for gum is far weaker than the supply, the supply and demand of serious imbalance.
III. Future forecast
Business Club Natural Rubber analysts believe that the current gum production country is still the production of rubber season, China’s import volume at the peak, the Qingdao Free Trade zone inventory and warehouse single inventory high, downstream enterprises start rate of the end of the chain rise, purchasing power is weaker, the overall supply and demand is still a serious imbalance of oversupply, Days glue future trend is still not optimistic.
Source: Business Club
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/40794.html