As the Thai government plans to sell 200,000 tons this month, Chen rubber stocks, Hujiao bottom falling trend in the last week, the main contract 1409 Friday’s closing price hit a five-year low of 13,770 yuan / ton. In this week’s first three trading days HuJiao stabilized usher in a rebound, the market has to build a medium-term bottom in sight.
Stock futures continued to decline
The period of the rubber stocks had increased in February to 207,600 tons, is the highest level in about 10 years, and then futures inventory reduction for 12 weeks to 166,900 tons, from 164,000 tons warehouse stocks even lower 10-126000 weeks, futures hedging pressure on the disc has been greatly reduced. Qingdao Bonded rubber stock is subject to capacity restrictions saturated, nearly a month since the growth is minimal.Description contradictions continue to digest inventory oversupply is easing, which favorable psychological pressure to ease the market for a technical rebound HuJiao provide a psychological basis.
Jiaojia sluggish growth in the supply side of the compression
Natural rubber prices continued to slump seriously dampen the enthusiasm of rubber farmers, resulting in natural rubber output fell. It is said that because rubber prices fell, some of this year’s rubber growers, especially in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping farmers. From our point of view, the end of March into Yunnan and Hainan cut open the season, but there is no listing of the basic state full latex, rubber-based Yunnan mostly private; Hainan market, tapping, processing situation is not optimistic, factory standard rubber plant operating rates are low, latex production-based, some private glue factory yet to resume operating. Jiaojia downturn compression of supply growth has occurred in 2013, while the decline in value of more than three percent this year, natural rubber, natural rubber prices have fallen abroad in the cost range, can be expected this year, the international and domestic rubber production growth will be lower than expected. Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) latest report shows that the SCO member states in 2014 fell 3 per month glue or 5.5% to 749,200 tons, mainly due to lower rubber prices prompted farmers to reduce rubber tapping. In the new season, tapping, natural rubber supply pressure is lower than the market had expected, which will also help expand HuJiao technical rebound.
Global vehicle sales continue to increase
Data show that as the world’s largest car producer, a quarter of China’s car sales increased by 9.2%, while China Automobile Association expects car sales in China this year is an increase of 8% -10%. The second largest car producer in March U.S. auto sales increased by 5.7%, a significant increase compared with analyst estimates 2 times;-year increase of 17.7% in the UK car sales, car sales in Germany increased by 5%. With steady economic recovery in the U.S. and Europe and other countries, the global automobile consumption growth momentum, demand for natural rubber consumption will grow steadily.
We found that natural rubber output fell or increased demand appears the same time period, the demand-side growth is relatively stable, while supply-side growth will be compressed shift. Therefore, we hypothesized that natural rubber demand growth may even cover the increase in the supply of natural rubber, which is widely expected to reverse the oversupply of natural rubber.
From a technical point of view, Hujiao Japanese K Line and K-Line showed a departure from the end form, which appeared in July 2013 and August 2012 too, but these two markets are out of the wave is not a small technical rally .
The foregoing analysis, we believe that although the situation is difficult to fundamentally reverse the bearish fundamentals, but the probability HuJiao technical rebound in May is relatively large. With 200,000 tons of cast storage Thailand advantage of this opportunity, a technical rally ready.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20727.html
