Informist, Monday, Mar 27, 2023
By Nishat Anjum
MUMBAI – Overnight indexed swap rates ended higher as traders paid fixed rates, tracking a rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said. US Treasury yields climbed as investors assessed the latest changes in the banking sector. Trade volume remained muted as traders avoided placing large bets ahead of the domestic rate-setting panel’s decision next week, dealers said.
The one-year swap rate settled at 6.75%, against 6.70% on Friday. The five-year swap rate ended at 6.24% against the previous day’s close of 6.19%.
However, the rise in swap rates was limited. The five-year swap rate failed to rise above the level of 6.24%, as traders received fixed rates and pulled the rates down to an intraday low of 6.21% in the five-year segment.
“Foreign banks were receiving today at around 6.23-6.24% levels (in the five-year swap rate), despite a rise in US yields,” a dealer at a primary dealership said. “People are punting on rate view now that maybe the Reserve Bank of India pauses after April because of the banking crisis outside.”
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 3.47% by the end of Indian market hours from 3.38% in early trade. Investors considered fresh developments in the banking sector. The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp announced that First Citizens Bank & Trust Co would purchase deposits and loans held by the Silicon Valley Bank.
Moreover, Deutsche Bank shares recovered from Friday’s sell-off, which was due to an increase in its credit default swaps. A credit default swap is a financial derivative instrument by means of which an investor can offset their credit risk with that of another.
Amidst concerns of a banking sector crisis overseas, the market looked forward to the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, scheduled on Apr 3, 5 and 6, for further clarity on the rate-hike trajectory back home. Traders largely expected the domestic rate-setting panel to go for a 25-basis-point rate hike in April.
They also expect the repo rate to top out at 6.75% after a final hike of 25 bps in April, dealers said. However, some dealers said that with each passing day, the number of people betting on a pause is slowly increasing.
“The volumes are more in the two-year swap as compared to the one-year, because people are more confident of a rate cut in two years’ time,” a dealer at another primary dealership said. “With the repo rate at 6.50%, the one-year swap has topped out at the current levels.”
OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, swap rates are seen steady due to lack of significant cues in the domestic market, dealers said.
Traders may also watch out for any sharp movement in US Treasury yields and crude oil prices at open.
The swap rate in the one-year segment is seen at 6.70-6.80%, and the five-year at 6.15-6.30%.
End
Edited by Maheswaran Parameswaran
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Source: Cogencis
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