Wednesday, 25 March 2015 21:46
MOSCOW: The rouble hit fresh 2015 highs early on Wednesday as Russian exporters sold foreign currencies to pay monthly taxes, before falling back sharply after these taxes had been paid.
At 1545 GMT, the rouble was down 0.2 percent against the dollar at 57.80 and 0.6 percent weaker at 63.39 versus the euro.
The Russian currency had traded as much as 2 percent higher on the day, setting a new 2015 peaks of 56.61 per dollar and 62.09 per euro, but it dropped towards evening after major taxes had been paid. Mineral extraction tax, value-added tax and excise duties fell due on Wednesday.
In a sign that the monthly tax cycle is currently playing a bigger role than the oil price, the rouble had strengthened despite oil weakening in the morning then fell back as crude prices rose. International benchmark Brent crude was up 0.8 percent on the day at $ 55.57 per barrel.
The rouble is normally closely tied to the price of oil, Russia’s main export, but other factors have played a bigger role over recent weeks, which have seen an impressive rouble rally despite little upward momentum in oil markets.
Analysts at VTB Capital said the rouble has been one of the strongest emerging market currencies this year, having fully pared first-quarter losses against the dollar despite a 4.6 percent decline in Brent.
Forex Club analyst Alena Afanaseva said in a note that the behaviour of household depositors may have been a factor behind the rouble’s recent strength, with Russians flocking to convert savings into roubles that they sold in a panic in December.
Tatiana Orlova, senior Russia economist at RBS in London, said the rouble market was failing to take proper account of the possibility of progress in talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, which could lead to more Iranian crude being released onto the global oil market.
“If there is any positive outcome to the meeting, such as a roadmap for gradual lifting of sanctions, this would have a big impact on oil market and oil prices could correct sharply (down),” she said.
Russian stock indexes eased down in both rouble and dollar terms, following trends on global equity markets, which retreated on Wednesday.
The dollar-based RTS index of Russian stocks closed down 0.3 percent to 878 points while the rouble-based MICEX index was down 0.2 at 1,616 points.
Copyright Reuters, 2015
