According to the China Rubber Industry Association data, in 2014 the national automobile tire production was 562 million, an increase of 6.2%.Among them, the radial tire production was 511 million, an increase of 7.3%, 90% meridian; bias tire production was 051 million, down 3.7%. Radial tire, the steel tire production was 112 million, an increase of 4.6%; semi-steel tire production was 399 million, an increase of 8.1%. On the number of accounting, semi-steel tire production accounted for 71%, steel tire production accounts for 20%, bias tire production accounted for only 9%.
Semi-steel tire is mainly used in the automobile, tire size is small, weighing 7-10 kg / strip; steel tire is mainly used in trucks, buses, particularly heavy card-based, larger tire size, tread width more In more than 8.25 inches, single birth weight range of 50-70 kg / article.
In addition, the tire compounds, steel tire and the component ratio of semi-steel tire rubber and synthetic rubber differed greatly. Semi-steel tire in rubber and synthetic rubber used in a proportion equivalent to the weight of all proportion in the quarter and down, while steel tire basic to the natural rubber-based, accounting for about 40% of natural rubber, synthetic rubber used in a proportion more than 10 % the following.
From rubber consumption point of view, steel tire industry is the main consumer of natural rubber. In early 2014 estimate annual data slightly to produce 112 million steel tires, natural rubber consumption was 2.7552 million tons, accounting for 60% of China’s total consumption of natural rubber, the production of semi-steel tire rubber consumption 3 times.
Tire consumption is divided into two parts, one for domestic consumption, and second export market. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2014 China’s tire production was 1.079 billion (statistical and China Rubber Industry Association data there are some differences). Customs data show that in 2014 China’s exports amount to 476 million tires. In the above data is calculated, tire exports accounted for about 40 percent of the domestic tire production. In recent years, the global economic slowdown, foreign trade friction, tire export situation is grim. Since the beginning of 2015, a slowdown in exports has significantly tire. But we also see that the tire is concentrated in domestic consumption. Therefore, in addition to monitoring tire exports, domestic tire should monitor the operation of consumption, especially steel tire market. Generally speaking, steel tire primarily used in heavy trucks.
Heavy truck market a decisive influence
China’s auto industry after years of development, has formed a sizeable market capacity. Data show that in 2014 China car sales were 23.72 million and 23.49 million, an increase of 7.3% and 6.9%. Among them, the passenger car sales were 19,920,000 and 19,700,000, an increase of 10.2% and 9.9%; commercial vehicle sales were 3.8 million and 3.79 million, down 5.7% and 6.5%.
Market holdings, as at the end of 2014, the national vehicle population reached 264 million, which amounted to 154 million car ownership. Thus, the domestic tire consumer market can be basically divided into two parts in order to support market-oriented new car sales and retail-based maintenance replacement market.
Look at the car supporting the market situation. According to the 2005 model year statistical classification standards, our cars are divided into two major categories of passenger cars and commercial vehicles, commercial vehicles including buses, passenger non-complete vehicles, trucks, tractor-trailer, truck non-complete vehicles. According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers classification criteria truck in accordance with the total mass divided into heavy, medium, light, micro four categories.Among them, the total mass of more than 14 tons of heavy-duty trucks (commonly known as card). Data show that in 2014 including trucks and buses, including the total commercial vehicle sales of 3,791,300, including heavy truck sales of 744,000.
Our corresponding supporting factor, single birth weight, a rough estimate of the proportion of the consumption of plastic rubber consumption, it was found, supporting the market tire rubber consumption in total consumption of about 619,200 tons, including heavy trucks, rubber consumption up to 219,600 tons, accounting for a new car more than 35% of the market’s total rubber consumption, and the number of total passenger car rubber supporting the market consumes considerably.
Look at the case of maintenance of the stock market. According to the Ministry data, as of June 2014, car ownership in China is 147 million, of which 115 million passenger cars, trucks 021,000,000, heavy truck 5355600.
We replace the coefficients according to different models and supporting the weight of the tire, rubber consumption proportion rough estimate, 136 million passenger and truck replacement demand consumes approximately 2,530,600 tons of natural rubber, wherein the amount of heavy trucks consume up to 1.58 million tons of natural rubber, accounting for more than 60% of the total rubber consumption replacement market.
Comprehensive and retail markets, heavy trucks will undoubtedly occupy the absolute position in natural rubber consumption. On the one hand, heavy truck tire supporting a larger number of new cars, new cars with an average of more than 12 tires; on the other hand, heavy trucks operating load, higher frequency and loss, strong replacement demand, usually 8-16 months, the vehicle must be completely replaced once the tire. Therefore, heavy truck sales and the use of natural rubber consumption operation play a crucial role. Compare car markets support and maintenance, repair the stock market holds absolute position in natural rubber consumption. With the continuous expansion of the stock market, the size of the new car market share of shrinking year by year, but new car sales reflected the basic tire consumption, which is still an important indicator to monitor tire and rubber consumption.
Heavy truck sales dismal
Each truck models from specific uses, the micro card is mainly used in urban and rural individual general passenger markets; light truck is mainly city-based short light load, the card is mainly used as traditional urban transport or modified special vehicles, heavy trucks are used for long distance or large-tonnage transport and logistics aspects of supporting and construction machinery.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistics, in May 2015 the domestic truck market sales 239,724 and 244,260, a decline of 12.99 percent of production, down 13.35 percent year on year; sales were down 11.93 percent, down 10.29 percent year on year, a decline of -19.80% in April continue to narrow basis. Among them, the heavy-duty truck production and marketing 49,044 and 51,712, a decline of 6.90% and 11.92%, respectively, down 35.32% and 30.16% respectively.
While heavy-duty truck sales decline of 39.13% compared with April and 33.31 percent narrowed, but it still is the worst monthly truck market segments. So far, the heavy truck market has been for more than three to four months of decline. Heavy truck market in “dire straits” is evident.
According to divide the product integrity and use of heavy trucks into heavy truck, heavy truck non-complete vehicles (heavy truck chassis) and semi-tractors. Among them, the heavy truck chassis constitutes the basis of the vehicle, mainly used in construction machinery-related aspects of conversion, and infrastructure, real estate construction related degree is large. Tractor-trailer is mainly used for transport and logistics, including port cargo road transport of goods and commodities, in part for retrofit market. With the promotion of weight fees, logistics and transport efficiency, semi-trailer tractor market demand is growing, the market share gradually expanded.
Heavier card breakdown data, May Tractor sales 24,294, down 1.75 percent, the proportion of total sales of heavy trucks rose to 46.98%; heavy truck vehicle sales 12,520, down 39.26 percent, accounting for heavy truck sales the proportion of the total amount of 24.21%; non-complete vehicles sold 14,898, down 47.87 percent, the proportion of total heavy truck sales fell to 28.81%. And real estate, infrastructure related to a greater degree of non-complete vehicles sales accounted for the largest decline year on year, in more than 40%, while the logistics associated Tractor, its sales slightly better.
Overall, consumption of heavy trucks to fundamentally improve, to be to stabilize its economy, particularly the real estate and infrastructure investment effectively pulling.
According heavy truck production and sales data, we can see that the seasonal nature of its operation of the market significantly. As can be seen from heavy trucks (including chassis and semi-trailer tractor) monthly sales each year in November – February the following year due to the northern winter construction can not be started, its material handling and construction-related demand has reduced to a certain extent, this a time of heavy truck sales in seasonal low. The Spring Festival, March and April building construction demand collective release, so heavy truck sales jumping to rise, and with the gradual meet this demand and slow down. Until July and August hot summer, the downstream demand fell again low for the year. However, from the previous year, five-month sales data, the heavy truck market showed significant feature is not busy season, especially in the second half 7-8 months into the off-season sales, the chain will face a sharp drop in demand for risk.
Heavy truck demand related industries differentiation
Heavy truck involved in a number of industries downstream.
One is transport logistics. In tractor-based heavy truck is used for logistics and transport, freight logistics growth reflects lower demand for heavy trucks.
Historically, increases and decreases in freight and heavy truck sales in particular, changes in circumstances consistent Tractor sales. Since 2014, China’s highway freight volume and turnover growth was significantly slowed down the trend, a direct result of shrinking demand for heavy truck transport and logistics.
The second is the real estate industry. Heavy trucks were converted non-complete vehicles primarily used in construction machinery related aspects, large and real estate construction related degree. The booming real estate market, and promote the rapid growth of demand for heavy trucks. From land acquisition and real estate new construction area of monitoring data, both declined significantly in recent years, a direct result of the non-complete vehicle heavy truck demand fell sharply. Data show that in May 2015, China’s accumulated commercial residential new construction area of 350.91 million square meters, up 17.6 percent year on year decline. The third is the infrastructure industry. Society as a whole large-scale capital investment in fixed assets generated a lot of civil engineering and road freight transport demand, leading to a lot of demand for the heavy truck industry.Huge investment in fixed assets is one of the major driving forces of heavy truck production scale continued rapid growth. Since late 2014, the amount of investment in infrastructure fell significantly restricted the growth of demand for heavy trucks.
Long-term slowdown in the heavy truck industry trend remains unchanged
With respect to the production and marketing of the horrors of the first half, the second half of 2015, the dawn of the heavy truck market emerged, the early decline is expected to reverse. The main positive factor for the late effects of the heavy truck market is reflected in:
First, under the pressure of steady growth, infrastructure projects launched centralized approval. The first half of 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a number of railways, highways, urban rail transport and other infrastructure projects, as demand for heavy trucks in the second half and downstream investment in infrastructure to provide a certain degree of protection.
In addition, another major positive infrastructure is “along the way” policy implementation. After the Asian investment bank signed the establishment of the second half of 2015, the “Sino-Thai railway” as the representative of the relevant infrastructure project will enter a substantive stage of implementation.
Second, real estate development investment is slowly picking up. The first half of 2015, the real estate market in the ample liquidity unprecedented policy stimulus combined effects experienced by the global downturn in sales and a significant rebound in local prices rebound twist.With the rebound in property sales, inventory rate to accelerate in the second half of a second-tier cities development company will increase efforts to replenish stocks, in order to stimulate the land market, and stimulate the development of investment recovery.
Third, free trade area and the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and other major cities Agglomeration. Shanghai FTA run more than a year has made positive progress, the second batch of the FTA, Guangdong, Tianjin, Fujian and other construction speed up the process, not from the free trade area will be further expanded, and focus on the layout to be able to achieve “along the way” influential and radiation Hub City.
The completion of the FTA, to stimulate the development of these areas of foreign trade and logistics industry, thus good heavy truck tractor industry in particular. Meanwhile, the major cities of Beijing, Tianjin group construction process integration, hardware facilities construction, including road network, including rigid demand will provide support heavy trucks.
In addition, yellow car out of the yellow car replacement, regulate the volume of standard concrete mixer geometry, the opportunities the country the first in the factor V implementation of first-tier cities, are the second half of the heavy truck market development, production and sales of heavy trucks will play a positive impetus effect .
However, domestic and international macroeconomic remains sluggish, difficult to predict the prospects for recovery in the real estate industry, domestic coal production fell and negative factors such as weak demand for transport is also plagued by focusing on card industry, which would like to restore the pre-growth situation is very difficult.
Based on the above analysis, it is essential for the impact of heavy truck production and sales of natural rubber consumption in the first half 2015 heavy-duty truck sales decline directly affect the demand for natural rubber, while the second half of overweight in infrastructure investment, driven by real estate recovery, heavy truck sales are expected to pick up.However, long-term slowdown in the heavy truck market trend has not changed, it will continue to restrict natural rubber prices.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/27785.html
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