Part I: the first half of 2014 market trends Review
Natural rubber futures price index began to fall from mid-2011, the first 43,293 yuan / ton, down to the end of 2014 a minimum 11,600 yuan / ton, before and after almost four years, a drop of 73.2%. Then at the end of 2014 from the low 11,600 yuan / ton began to rebound, went up to 15,525 yuan on June 1 / ton, the highest increase of 33.8%.
Front and rear 14/15-year New Year’s Eve rubber half a year is in the low repeated shocks, followed by mid-April to late calendar when the lean supply and demand, coupled with natural rubber but also the entire chemical sector in the lower valuation of the species, in the pursuit of money He rebounded. Consolidation range on the rebound in the first half of last year, followed by open cut increased supply pressure, unable to stand, and dropped back six months trading range 14/15.
Part II: Fundamental analysis
Demand analysis:
1, the steady growth of monetary and fiscal policy efforts to greater
November 2014, China cut interest rates, began to enter the rate cut cycle. February 4, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points; February 28 evening, China’s central bank announced that exist since March 1, 2015 the benchmark lending interest rates 0.25 percentage points. April 19, RRR 1 percentage point; May 10, cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points; June 27, China’s central bank directed RRR by 0.5 percentage points, 0.25 percentage point rate cut. Cut interest rates four times in total, the RRR (including directional RRR) three times. Steady growth larger effort.
In addition to lower interest rates than the quasi monetary policy, fiscal policy efforts are also very large. March 6, the Ministry of Finance has approved a 3 trillion stock of debt exchange, reducing the burden on local governments. March 30 is “330 Deal”, the central bank and other five ministries jointly issued the mortgage, taxes the New Deal, stable housing consumption, followed by the country have implemented the implementation details. Under steady growth pressures, the NDRC approved the project at full speed, and at June 25 rare place names 13 provinces “take the money and the project does not start.” Visible, official only allowed to borrow an old also new, but also reduces the interest burden, but also supervise the project started.
Monetary and fiscal policies have steady growth efforts so large, the demand for rubber, of course, is favorable. But the effect is not yet reflected. Project launched will gradually reflected in the demand for engineering tire. But now heavier card sales point of view, is still relatively weak.
2, natural rubber end demand is still very weak, but expected to post steady upward.
This year, the rubber end demand is poor. May heavy card data continues to show weakness, whether it is up or chain have deteriorated and exceeded market expectations, down 31% from the laws of the market in previous years, heavy truck sales, the April and May is the peak heavy truck sales this year, clearly showing the situation is not busy season. The first five months, the cumulative decline in the domestic heavy truck market is almost no sign of narrowing, up to 33%. In other words, steel tire consumption fell more than three percent. Narrow passenger car sales, affected by the country’s limited licensing policy, growth continued to decline.
Downstream heavy truck sales continued to show weakness.
In April 2015, according to the analysis of the International Rubber Study Group, in the IMF forecast scenario, in 2015 and 2016 the total world rubber demand is expected to increase by 1.8% and 4.1%, respectively. By 2015, global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow 3.1% in 2016 to grow by 4.4%. Global synthetic rubber demand is expected to increase to 16.8 million tons in 2015 and 2016 of 17.5 million tons.
Supply Analysis:
About low prices caused by reduced supply problems caused by the El Niño phenomenon and production is expected to have become the industry focus, but the effect still somewhat limited.
1, inventory low, but with the increase in supply or a late increased process.
Rubber main producing areas from the beginning in May has gradually tapping into the period, the current is still in the stage of rubber seasonal supply increase supply pressure tends to increase, while the downstream tire factory operating rate on the decline, the late demand and consumption of natural rubber is expected to occur down, the inventory cycle will gradually accumulate into the stage, the rubber in the short-term bear atmosphere.
Bonded inventories remain low. By the end of May, stock Qingdao Bonded Zone is 168,100 tons, continued to decline since March, compared with last year, more obvious to the inventory, up in recent years low. Natural rubber prices played a good supporting role. The Shanghai Stock Exchange after the Spring Festival, the stock exchange continued to decline, which is in line with the seasonal pattern, the year is still continuing decline. According to the law, the late increase in stock or have a process that will put pressure on prices in recent months disk.
2, low prices caused by production problems
Rubber production costs area between 11000-15000 yuan / ton, the price can not be at the cost of long hovered along the area, when rubber prices close to 11,000 yuan / ton, the domestic inevitable phenomenon of abandoned cut, abroad (eg Thailand) but will also lead serious social problems, so the current rubber prices have shock bottoms.
Currently upstream natural rubber processing companies facing losses, which actively reduce the amount of machining practices may continue.According to statistics, in the first quarter of this year, Thailand, Indonesia and other top-ranking natural rubber factories have a greater capacity reduction. Decline in operating rates, resulting in the number of its natural rubber sold in the Chinese market is also significantly reduced.The latest customs data show that from January to March China’s natural rubber imports significantly reduced from last year’s 1.16 million tons to 869,000 tons. Despite a certain degree of decline in Chinese demand, but inconsistent year global natural rubber supply and demand decline. This shows that the circulation and tire factory to inventory is accelerating its progress.
3, weather threats (El Niño) production is expected to bring
According to the National Climate Center, the latest monitoring data show that the current El Nino monitoring indicators indeed reached the highest value of this El Nino events since, and has continued to improve. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Agriculture Organization WMO expert consultation recently conducted on the impact of the El Nino event that El Nino will continue to fall, reaching above average strength.Affected by flood may be a “southern flood and northern drought”, degree heavy last year.
When an El Niño event, part of the global output of agricultural products, especially rubber prices will have a greater impact. Historical data show that the El Nino phenomenon occurred in July 2009 drought in many parts of Southeast Asia lead the global production and export of rubber in Indonesia, the main rubber production fell 11 percent, a direct result of rubber prices from 2009 to 2011 continued to increase 157.79%, rubber futures the price of the cumulative increase of 118.7 percent, the highest price during a record 43,293 yuan / ton.
June 12, 2015, Hainan Rubber (601,118) announcement that this year, the continued high temperatures and drought Hainan, a significant reduction in annual rainfall than in previous years. Affected by the drought, the individual base in the western region branch of rubber trees with yellow leaves or leaves. Currently, due to the drought in Hainan hot weather continues, the drought is expected to be some impact on rubber production.
Industry analysts pointed out that although El Nino will cause cuts affect rubber production, but since this year rubber continued excess industry capacity, drought is expected to absorb some production capacity, and for the price boost. But it can bring substantial cuts, as well as the magnitude of cuts remains to be seen.
IRSG 2014 年 8 month forecast, 2015 is expected to be an oversupply of 202,000 tons, and in 2014 was 371,000 tons, 650,000 tons in 2013. Excess capacity continued to decline, inventories are reduced.
4, the labor costs of rigid support
If rubber prices too low, lower than labor costs, rubber farmers will abandon cutting, and therefore will not be long rubber prices lower than labor costs. Since labor costs upward rigid characteristics, and production of rubber and is very heavily dependent on manual tapping, therefore, labor costs would constitute a rigid support rubber prices.
Part III: Fundamental diagnosis, technical analysis and investment recommendations
Fundamentals judgment:
Recent demand is very weak, but steady growth policy underpinning the late, falling demand little space, material steadily. In recent years, maintaining the supply contraction, but the inventory in the second half expected to have an increased process, and stocks have yet to be digested.Unexpected weather problems caused substantial damage to the possibility of supply still exist. Therefore, to determine the limited space down, and up a larger space, the weather may be a key trigger points.
Technical analysis:
Weekly: After MACD divergence on the white line DIFF 0-axis side, it is strong. Withdrawing 0 axis is currently in the shaft after the confirmation 0, but still a strong range.
Daily: MACD 0 axis white line appears after departing Withdrawing 0 axis has been broken down, for the vulnerable. It fell below the red 144-day moving average support. On-line to be strengthened.
12750 centric expected to have strong support below the platform.
Investment advice:
Because the center has 12,750 cost platform has strong support, and space is much larger than the up-down space, the general direction of the main recommendations for long operations. In the low platform to actively seek opportunities to buy, the lower position limit in the vicinity of 11,500, if the arrival can boldly buy. Inside the platform are advised to buy low sell high shock operation. If once again exceeded the following platforms range, can be converted to hold the center line oriented.
Currently the daily targets to be strengthened, hour level is still weak, it can be 30 minutes or 60 minutes after entering the strong level, or that are extremely low-cost short-term indicators according to rapid intervention, control positions.
Part IV: Risk Warning
El Nino failed to deliver cuts, dollar short-term interest rates caused by dropping commodity depth.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/27802.html
