Monday, 06 July 2015 11:36
TOKYO: The euro held its ground in Asia on Monday despite the odds of a Greek exit from the eurozone spiking after the country rejected creditors’ austerity demands in a landmark weekend referendum.
The 19-nation currency was changing hands at $ 1.1027 and 134.82 yen, down from $ 1.1102 and 136.70 yen Friday.
However, it clawed back some of the losses suffered in New York electronic trade Sunday, when it fell to $ 1.0963.
The dollar fetched 122.28 yen against 123.05 yen on Friday.
The uncertainty stoked yen-buying as investors flocked to the Japanese currency, a safe haven in times of turmoil.
“It’s hard to see how risk assets can rally for an extended period in this kind of toxic environment, at least in the near-term,” said Chris Tedder, a research analyst at Forex.com in Sydney.
“We need more clarity on how this is going to play out; the real test will come when European markets” open, he added.
There were widespread fears that the euro would plunge in the aftermath of a “No” vote, but analysts said investors were still in the process of weighing the broader impact of the shock result.
“There is no particular reason for the euro to be holding up, but markets are still assessing the spill-over risks in the case of a Greek exit from the eurozone,” said Shinya Harui, currency analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo.
“I personally think the chance (of the Greek exit) is very high, at around 70-80 percent,” he added.
“A Greek exit would shake confidence in what had been 19-nation solidarity, which could fuel anti-euro movements within Europe.”
– ‘Worst possible outcome’ –
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As Greece was unable to repay a key International Monetary Fund debt, it cannot borrow money from international institutions and will be shut out of financial markets, Harui warned.
“Inflation risks (in Greece) are very high… People voted ‘No’ without being fully aware of the ensuing risks,” he said.
The government of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had campaigned against accepting debt reform proposals from its creditors — the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — claiming a “No” vote would strengthen his hand in negotiations.
But Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who had warned ahead of the poll that a “No” vote would likely lead to Greece exiting the single currency, described the result as “very regrettable”.
“The ‘No’ vote is the worst possible outcome from an ‘uncertainty’ perspective,” Ray Attrill, global co-head of forex strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a commentary.
“‘Grexit’ risk has clearly risen sharply, and is now the singularly most likely scenario following the referendum.
“Of one thing we can be sure: the ‘moral hazard’ risks arising from immediately granting Greece a soft deal with substantial debt relief… makes this a less likely scenario than Grexit,” he added.
In other trading, risk aversion dented some emerging market currencies.
The dollar rose to 13,360 Indonesian rupiah from 13,306 rupiah on Friday, to 63.59 Indian rupees from 63.37 rupees and to 33.85 Thai baht from 33.78 baht.
The greenback also climbed to 1,125.70 Korean won from 1,120.83 won, to Sg$ 1.3513 from Sg$ 1.3499, to 45.13 Philippine pesos from 45.11 pesos, and to Tw$ 30.94 from Tw$ 30.88.
It rose to a multi-year high of 3.8085 Malaysian ringgit from 3.7775 ringgit.
The Australian dollar fell to 74.82 US cents from 75.84 cents while the Chinese yuan slipped to 19.69 yen from 19.82 yen.
