2015 first half of the domestic rubber market after the first rise, greater volatility, according to the business community monitoring, January 1 rubber index was 648 points, on Jan. 24 fell to 598 points, after a slight shock to early April opened a road rally, as of June 26 rubber index rebounded to 663 points.
Factors:
1, products, inventory consumption support to prices (in Qingdao Port Bonded natural rubber stock, for example, change the stock in late February is 21 million metric tons, while in the end of May fell to 168,100 tons, as of June 15 Japan and further to 139,100 tons); Yield reduction from the supply of rubber price formation support. (With synthetic rubber butadiene rubber business community as an example, according to monitoring, 14-year average monthly domestic butadiene rubber production in more than 60,000 tons, and this year in May and June production to 60,000 tons or less.) 2, industrial chain, According to the business community monitoring, butadiene and other upstream butadiene rubber in the first half of the rate of increase of 32.91 percent, support the formation of rubber prices. 3, macroeconomic, interest rate boost, People’s Bank of China decided to cut financial institutions RMB benchmark lending and deposit interest rates since May 11, 2015. The one-year benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 5.1%; year benchmark deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.25%. From a macro to bring the bullish factors for the rubber industry.
Outlook forecast:
Social business analyst Xu Xiaokun that the short term volatility to pick up the rubber industry as a whole prices firm based. Medium to long term synthetic rubber, natural rubber, or have different performance: 1, by overcapacity, synthetic rubber prices in the future or possible secondary bottoms (Synthetic currently in a state of overcapacity in butadiene rubber, for example, domestic butadiene rubber production capacity at 1,542,000 tons / year, from the current average monthly domestic production, the capacity utilization has been at 5 percent state profits once the market recovers, manufacturers will gradually resume production, then they will suppress the formation of rubber prices). 2, the cost of line support, or natural rubber prices have bottomed (according to the business community understood that the beginning of natural rubber latex raw material prices have fallen to the cost of line 9 yuan / kg, has seriously affected the rubber farmers tapping enthusiasm, so do not fall further down the possibility large, natural rubber prices form a strong support.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/27834.html
