Since August, demand for natural rubber no obvious improvement, but there are continued signs of decline, domestic rubber prices also continued malaise, as of August 5, 1601 rubber main contract closed at 12,255 yuan / ton this month, the first three trading Japan is down 2.89%, and achieve the “triple negative.” From June 3 this year began keeping statistics, as of now, 1601 rubber prices have fallen nearly 4,000 yuan / ton, down more than 24%.
In the industry view, China’s economic slowdown, weak downstream demand, supply pressures increase, laying a main tone rubber fundamentals weak, and the main producing countries attempt to boost rubber prices by reducing the supply of initiatives and not worked. In addition, the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up, the global capital market volatility, especially in commodity markets, crude oil prices continued to take the bear and the decline more than, further exacerbating the weak performance rubber market.
“In the case of poor macroeconomic environment and market demand in the chain of bad problems, recent Hujiao main 1601 contract, although not below the previous low, some short covering in a position to profit-taking phenomenon, but also a long counter-offensive Xinyou It is weak. “Boseong futures researcher Chen Dong representation.
Publicly available data show that China’s manufacturing PMI in July was 50.0 percent, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating economic growth in China is still facing significant downward pressure, continued weakness in corporate entities, but also the market worried about demand for commodities by China speed will continue to slow.
Under increasing downward pressure on economic growth, the domestic tire market demand continues to slump, combined with “dual” effect around the first half of 2015, Chinese tire industry average operating rate of about 60%, down more than ten percentage points over the same period last year , a direct result of tire production fell by 3.9%, to 455 million. At the same time, Chinese imports gradually fell outside the glue data, the first half of this year, China imported a total of 1.94 million tons of natural rubber (including the adhesive), down 8%.
According to the Chinese auto dealer inventory early warning indicators of China Automobile Dealers Association released in July dealer inventory early warning index was 53.4%, a decline of 11.2%, an increase of 1.6%, still higher than the warning line, which is the auto dealer inventory Warning for over 10 consecutive months warning line.
The total global production of rubber producing countries did not fall, IRSG in its latest report that in 2015 natural rubber production is expected to increase by 4.4% year on year to 12.6 million tons, in 2014 natural rubber production was 12.07 million tons. ANRPC natural rubber production in the first half of the Member States edged down 0.7 percent year on year, 2015 full-year growth of 3.4%.
“China’s natural rubber supply and demand fundamentals are not optimistic about the short term, natural rubber prices do not have the opportunity to buy the dips” in the energy and chemical futures researcher Hang Yang Yanli said that China’s auto industry sales terminal growth rate dropped significantly, is expected to be difficult to pick up significant future; tires domestic production data appears part signs of improvement, but the situation remains grim export tire, the tire industry increasingly fierce competition. In case there is no significant improvement in demand for natural rubber will continue weak pattern.
Chen Dong believe that weak macroeconomic environment will not only make the tire industry, increasing the pressure to survive, but also have a negative impact to the upstream natural rubber industry. In the downstream demand and the gradual weakening of the financial property turned pessimistic scenario, future rubber prices are expected to continue weak trend is expected to contract in 1601 for a long period of time prices will steadily down the center of gravity may be below the previous low of 11,870 yuan / ton line, fell to 11,500 yuan / ton below.
