First, the July Market Review
Weak fundamentals superimposed commodity market panic spread, July natural rubber prices continued downward. From a fundamental point of view, the new plastic supply gradually increase, pre-Thai plastic raw material prices continue downward, rubber prices following the dollar dragged down; lack of downstream tire factory orders, capacity utilization fell; from an alternative point of view, synthetic crude oil plummeted drag rubber prices down, natural rubber and synthetic rubber spread widening; while continuously increasing the warehouse inventory; a macro perspective, the domestic stock market crash triggered selling of goods, while the dollar index continuous upward, commodity markets also constitute pressure. As of July 30, as of July 30, RU1509 close at 11,945 yuan / ton, down 855 yuan at the end of the month / ton, down 6.68%; RU1601 close at 12,695 yuan / ton, late last month fell 1,355 yuan / ton, fell 9.64 percent.
Compared with the futures market, the spot market is a bit dull, the price volatility is not. Spot market is facing a new rubber supply to increase the pressure, the venue of the spot is relatively abundant, but the current prices to near the cost line, the price is significantly supporting role; needs to consider a lower overall operating downstream demand for raw materials to maintain demand procurement, small single talks to the Lord. As of July 30, 14 years of state-owned Yunnan offer full latex Shanghai and Shandong area to close at 12,000 yuan / ton, down 500 late last month, a drop of about 4%.
Second, natural rubber supply and demand fundamentals
(A) supply: increased supply trend is clearly
1, the three main producing countries: the end of negative growth, the supply continues to increase
According to ANRPC statistics show that in June three major producing countries total 655,500 tons, an increase of 8.47%, an increase of 9.40%; the first six months of cumulative production 4,085,800 tons, an increase of 2.04%; all Member States rubber production down 0.69 percent six months ago. ANRPC ending stocks total 990,600 tons, a decrease of 2.28 percent, an increase of 9.53%.
Thailand this month, raw material price volatility down, the overall fell slightly. Plastic cup rose 1.14 percent to close at 44.5 baht / kg; glue down 2.04% to close at 48 baht / kg; raw film and sheet tobacco were down 2.94 percent and 1.92 percent, to close at 49.79 baht / kg and 51.55 baht / kg.
2, the domestic areas: increased supply, glue continue to lower the purchase price
Domestic producing areas continued to increase, although in July the rainy season in Yunnan, once made tapping decline, but the weather improved tapping turn back to normal. Zhuo record information according to research, allegedly Jiaojia bad about about 1/4 tapping rubber farmers pause; from the production point of view, various factors, glue production this year compared with last year fell by about 15%. However, production data released ANRPC view, continue to rise, the yield 99,000 tons in June, an increase of 3.13%, an increase of 6.45%.
From the price perspective glue, producing annual rainy weather will continue for some time, stage daily output reduction, has little effect, it is difficult to constitute a subject of speculation, and producing a whole is relatively abundant cash reserves, glue price continue to decline ʱ?? As of the 29th, part glue Yunnan producing raw materials purchase price at 9.8-10.2 yuan / kg, late last month fell 1.3 yuan / kg; two plastic pieces 9.6-9.8 yuan / kg, private plastic factory two plastic pieces 9.5-9.7 yuan / kg, miscellaneous plastic 9 yuan / kg.
June natural rubber imports were significantly higher than the same ring. Statistics show that in June 2015 Chinese imports of natural rubber (latex free) imports amounted to 380,300 tons, growth of 36.11%, an increase of 53.3%, the highest volume of imports most in the first half of this year. Variety of view points, smoked sheet, standard rubber and adhesive volume of imports rise, especially adhesive imports hit 3-year high. June smoke film imports 14,000 tons, up 1.45 percent, rose 86.7%; June standard rubber imports 118,300 tons, growth of 10.66%, down 14.28%, a larger volume of imports Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, 91% of total imports. June adhesive record imports, imports 248,000 tons, growth of 56.25%, an increase of 145.55%.
Although the initial new adhesive standard on July 1 formally implemented, but according to the customs sources said, in July import customs adhesive normal, and no news came. In addition, according to Zhuo record information research knowledge, foreign plants adhesive still in production, but because of the latter not really worry factors, production declined, it reported that some manufacturers have little production. At present, although the implementation of the new standard node adhesive has passed, but still may be normal declarations, and no news came out, it is expected that the overall natural rubber imports in July in high adhesive remain high.
(B) demand: Heavy truck sales decline narrowed, but the tire business starts fell
1, heavy truck sales decline narrowed
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as “Automobile Association”) released data show that June auto production and sales were down year on year following the May both fell again. Automobile production 1,850,800, a decline of 5.77%, down 0.22%; sales 1,803,100, a decline of 5.29%, down 2.31%. In the first half, car sales 12,095,000 and 11,850,300, an increase of 2.64 percent and 1.43 percent, down 6.96 percentage points and 6.93 percentage points higher than the previous year.
In June, China’s heavy truck sales were 40,900 and 50,300, a decline of 16.67 percent and 2.78 percent, down 25.30% and 21.10%; the first half of total sales 297,500 and 295,500, down 32.93 percent and 31.13%; Thankfully June, though still “stumble endlessly”, production and sales of the same qoq began to shrink. Affected by heavy trucks in the first half of the decline in total sales 31.13% 32.88% also improved over the previous five months of year on year decline. Whether it is the overall decline in the first half, or a decline in June narrowed, heavy truck market volatility has been closely associated with the macroeconomic situation. According to forecasts of the current number of agencies, has lasted one year cumulative investment slowdown trend will not end in June, the second half of the heavy truck market is still stressful.
China Automobile Dealers Association published “China’s auto dealer inventory warning Index Survey” VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) shows that in June 2015 inventory early warning index was 64.6 percent, up 7.3 percentage points. At a level above the warning line. June total market demand decreased, reducing the average daily sales, a slight decrease of employees, dealers operating conditions with slightly worse than the previous month. Is expected in July is still optimistic about the market demand, dealer inventory pressure is still large. Some manufacturers cut the heat off, but the market demand pressure is still large.
2, the tire business started continue to decline
China car tire dealer price index in May was 71.58, up 0.75%, compared with May last year, down 11.3%. Resulting in the overall price level rose mainly due to: Pirelli, Jia Tong, Michelin, Ruckus Hallmark market prices rose slightly, Chaoyang, Goodyear, Hankook, Ma licensing, Maxxis, Bridgestone market price performance fall smooth non-market price brands.
June 2015 China’s tire exports to 42,970,400, an increase of 4.1%, an increase of 5.14%; January to June total export volume of 223,735,500, down 3.23%.
According to Zhuo research, June weakening domestic steel tire sales, increasing market supply and demand imbalance, most businesses have complained that the current market deviated from the normal track. From the point of view the case study, June sales fell businesses accounted for half of the total research, accounting for 51%, wherein the ring than the decline in the 15% -35% of businesses in the majority, accounting for 27%. Sales were basically the same business a few, about 43% of the total number of enterprises in the survey. Number of study, only 6% of businessmen said this month sales were to rise more concentrated in about 20%. Overall, the supply and demand imbalance is still present drawbacks steel tire market, weak demand makes the business monthly sales decline, sales stability can not be sustained.
The continued downturn in demand, but also makes the continued slight decline in tire factory capacity utilization levels. As of July 30, in Shandong steel tire tire companies operating rate of 65.9%, the chain fell 3.8 percent, down 5.5 percentage points. It is reported that a small number of manufacturers has cut the size of the operation, while the large inventory, sales slow library also cut the main reason. Attention to seasonal effects, the tire plant started in August whether the rebound.
(C) Inventory: large cash reserves transferred to delivery library
As of July 15 Qingdao Bonded rubber inventories fell to 106,700 tons, a decline of 8 percent overall decline slowed from the previous month end. Specifically, the natural rubber is 76,300 tons, 15,300 tons adhesive, rubber and adhesive shows inventory reduction is still a major factor in overall inventories fell, while synthetic rubber was 1.51 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month end ʱ??
As of July 24, total stocks of natural rubber futures 177,394 tons, increased 39.48% compared with the low in early May, an increase of 15.75% over last year.
As of July 28, the stock of which 128,730 tons of natural rubber futures, compared with 32.66% in early May lows, with the same period last year.
As of June 30, the Japanese raw rubber stock 14,075 tons, slightly lower, but still low in April increased by nearly 30%.
Third, the spread structure
(A) external disk spreads disappeared
From the current point of view, a great convergence of internal and external disk prices. 20 standard plastic aspect, bonded upside down about 30 dollars, smoked sheet flat water. Mainly due to inventory pressure or a free trade zone within the overall negotiable limited.
(B) synthetic rubber prices fall, whole milk and synthetic rubber spread widened
Crude oil prices fell, and in Asia naphtha cracker operating rates rise, the price of butadiene increased by the supply and cost of the collapse of the double pressure, prices fell sharply, the cost of synthetic rubber end support weakening prices fall. Natural rubber and synthetic rubber spread recovery. As of May 27, the Shanghai market price of whole milk with Huadong Shun Ding and butadiene spreads closed at 1900 and 1800 yuan / ton, respectively, late last month, up 750 yuan / ton and 300 yuan / ton.
(C) whole milk with adhesive spread being steady
Whole milk spot price due to increased supply, and the futures prices fell sharply, dragged down the price down. Although the new regulations on time and adhesive landing, but still normal customs, imports are expected to pressure diminished, prices also vulnerable down. Whole milk and composite spread being steady, 13-year and full latex adhesive spread 100 yuan / ton, about 14 years full latex and adhesive spread 600 yuan / ton.
(D) whole milk and Vietnam 3L Jiaojia difference within a narrow range
Since 2015, whole milk and Vietnam 3L rubber prices showing the difference between a narrow range trend, the spread narrow range between -300-500. The current spread between the two to close at 300 yuan / ton.
(V) 1,9 spreads convergence
Natural rubber prices continued forward structure, but obviously spread convergence. As of July 29, ru1601-ru1509 close at 735 yuan / ton, ru1605-ru1601 close at 270 yuan / ton.
Fourth, the market outlook
In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber remains sluggish. From the supply point of view, whether domestic areas, or the main producing areas in Southeast Asia, are at significantly increased production trend among the prices of raw materials and the dollar down; at the same time the new regulations, although adhesive floor, but is currently still normal customs clearance, is expected within a period of time natural rubber imports will remain high level. While the demand side, the tire operating rates continue downward, getting goods less willingness also difficult to form a short-term boost to the market. Alternative angle, synthetic rubber prices down, will also pose a threat to conventional natural rubber demand. Inventory, bonded inventory low, but stock futures continued to increase, putting pressure on the September contract. The only positive market which, it seems that the absolute price is too low, short-selling risk-benefit ratio continued to decline.
Looking ahead, there is likely to constitute a positive underlying market factors, perhaps: First adhesive thorough implementation of new regulations, a substantial decline in imports, a factor of uncertainty large; the second is a seasonal tire operating rate rise, resulting in demand constituting certain good; third decline in heavy truck sales continue to narrow, partly to boost market confidence.
From an operational point of view, has not appeared before said good, basic fabrics continue to maintain a weak state, there is no power to do more. But in absolute low prices, to continue chasing empty Risk apparently too large. Operate temporarily on short-term oriented, if the market outlook appears positive factors above, or the overall commodity market confidence has been restored, you can try a few more, or be sold to buy a 9 hedges.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/28478.html
