In line with the steep fall in its price, natural rubber production had a heavy dip in October, start of the main tapping season in the country. An 11 per cent drop was recorded at 49,000 tonnes, compared to October 2014. In India, the main tapping season in rubber plantations is October to January, with almost 40 per cent of annual production in this period.
Total annual production is likely to be below 600,000 tonnes in 2015-16. The latest Rubber Board data indicates a 15 per cent fall in April-October, first seven months of this financial year. Which clearly reflects the three-year fall in prices. According to reports, tapping has stopped or slowed in 40 per cent of the plantations, mainly where more labourers are required. Experts said fresh planting has halted for a couple of years. Rubber plantations cover 778,400 hectares, a figure static for two years, of which the tappable area is 518,000 hay.
This is likely to come down in the next few years because of the low price regime. Prices abroad are much lower than in India and rubber-based industries depend heavily on import.
N Radhakrishnan, former president of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association, said the October dip would continue in November, December and January. The latest projections by growers estimate a total output, as mentioned earlier, of 600,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Production’s recent peak was in 2011-12 and 2012-13, above 900,000 tonnes in both years.
The Board had said at the time that it was targeting to cross a million tonnes but in 2013-14, production dropped to 774,000 tonnes. In 2014-15, this fell further to 645,000 tonnes. From 2004-05 to 2012-13, production and consumption went hand in hand. From 2013-14 on, a big gap developed and the shortage was met by heavy import. In 2013-14, consumption had peaked at 981,520 tonnes, while production was 774,000 tonnes. The trend in this year indicates the gap is likely to cross 400,000 tonnes. The country imported 252,587 tonnes in April-October.
