20,000 yuan / ton or will become the price of natural rubber “ceiling”

Since November 7 continuous rubber futures sharply higher, 21 rubber futures prices closed limit again, natural rubber main contract 21 closing price of 17,130 yuan / ton, sharply higher 965 yuan / ton, natural rubber futures prices sharply stimulate domestic spot price of natural rubber prices rising, natural rubber spot prices sharply higher.

According to monitoring data show business community, November 21 natural rubber price is 15,600 yuan / ton, since September, natural rubber market prices are rising, began November 7, or even more alarming, more than the price of futures trading limit . Spot prices rose sharply, the impact of superimposed positive results at home and abroad. On the one hand due to the recent foreign natural rubber supply local markets, natural rubber producing countries Thailand by rain impact, natural rubber supply decrease, coupled with Malaysia’s natural rubber products fell so reduce sources of imports, coupled with rising prices of raw materials in Thailand, as 21 Thailand USS3 three central market spot price of rubber on Monday reported 61.18-61.78 baht per kilogram, Thai raw material market prices higher boost domestic natural rubber prices. On the other hand is the positive support the domestic front, the lower domestic Qingdao bonded port rubber stock, as of mid-November, Qingdao bonded port rubber stocks 9.09 million tons, compared with 12.2% in mid-September decline, reducing inventory is undoubtedly rubber market prices a big plus. Although the natural rubber industry in the use of off-season, but the downstream tire enterprises operating rate at a high level, as of mid-November steel tire companies operating rate of about 68%; semi-steel tire companies operating rate of about 72% lower tire operating rate high natural rubber prices is also supporting a positive. Under domestic and international multiple positive, driven by the spot market natural rubber prices continued to rise.

Social business analyst Chen Ling believe natural rubber, natural rubber futures prices in addition to the favorable spot market, there are two good, the main reason is due to the devaluation of the RMB, natural rubber futures prices and the dollar exchange rate trend is strikingly similar. China a serious shortage of natural rubber self-sufficiency rate of 80 per cent of natural rubber to be imported, the import dependency of larger products, devaluation is the leading cause of natural rubber futures prices. On the other hand is due to the “peer effect”, since November, nonferrous metals, coal and other bulk commodities Nongfu have different degrees of increase, natural rubber market was also affected, natural rubber market prices continue to rise.

For natural rubber market outlook, business community editor, Development Research Center of Chinese commodities Secretary-General Liu Xintian that the yuan can not be endless fall down, the state has adopted the policy of non-interference, Liu Zongbian that the yuan exchange rate of $ 7: 1 is a pass. In the devaluation process, natural rubber prices will continue to rise, but the exchange rate stabilized, they also will become the natural rubber market price inflection point, LiuXinTian noted natural rubber futures market price 20,000 yuan / ton or natural rubber market will be ” ceiling”.