Expectations of robust demand from China boosted rubber to a three-year high after buoyant car sales data for November lifted expectations of higher tyre demand.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported vehicle sales of 2.9m in November, up 16.6 per cent year on year. Tax breaks introduced this year on small passenger cars have spurred demand and while the November figure was down from a September peak of 26.1 per cent, it marked the sixth straight double-digit rise in growth.
Rubber, which is also used in condoms and gloves, closed up almost 8 per cent to $205.60 a kilogramme in Singapore, its highest level since January 2014.
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“If demand remains this dynamic, more rubber will be needed for manufacturing tyres,” said Commerzbank.
Chinese consumers have rushed to purchase vehicles before the tax breaks expire at the end of the year. The country’s scramble for cars has also helped palladium, which is used in catalytic converters in petrol engines, with the precious metal up more than a third this year at $727.35 a troy ounce.
Nevertheless, some car executives and analysts are concerned that rise in sales could slow next year if the government fails to extend the tax break, introduced in late 2015 to support flagging consumer demand.
Analysts said rubber prices have also been supported by heavy rainfall in Thailand, the commodity’s largest producer, which led to disrupted harvesting known as “tapping”, which also added to the price increases.
The market has been on a downward trajectory since the start of 2011 when prices almost hit $600 per kg. This year, it has surged more than 80 per cent, and is likely to leading to increased costs for leading tyremakers including Bridgestone, Goodyear and Michelin.
The China car sales data comes as industry consultants are expecting a rubber supply shortfall between 2016-2018 due to falling yields.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries last week said it expected the production of its members — who account for about 90 per cent of worldwide supply — to increase only 0.1 per cent in 2016. While demand is forecast to rise 4.1 per cent from the previous year.
The ANRPC said: “The uptrend could be supported by favourable supply-demand fundamentals, weak Japanese yen, rebound in crude oil price and improved economic outlook in US.”
