Into late February, Hujiao futures into the rapid decline in the trend, after the risk of bad release was better. In the Thai government delayed auction reserve rubber and China’s heavy truck sales in February than expected increase in the boost, last week Hujiao 1705 contract finally in the 18500-19000 yuan / ton range stabilized.
Federal Reserve interest rate is expected to be strong
Since the end of February, six Fed officials, including Chairman Yelun, have frequently published hawkish remarks to support the pace of the dollar’s rate hike. Under the guidance of intensive expectations, the Fed introduced in March the possibility of raising interest rates suddenly rose. US Federal Fund rate futures traders produced the “Federal Reserve Observation Tool” shows that the current market is expected to raise interest rates in March reached 90%, significantly higher than a week ago, more than 30% level. In other words, the Fed is likely to be in the next week (March 14 to 15) held a regular meeting on the introduction of monetary policy rate hike initiatives.
Not only that, the US job market and inflation levels have shown a positive improvement in the signal, while the global economic risk decline in a relatively favorable position, so the Fed continued to raise interest rates in June the probability of up to 98%. Affected by this, the dollar index once again strong last week, and once break 102 integer. Strong dollar return to the domestic goods to bring another pressure.
Domestic social stocks still rise
As of the end of February 2017, Qingdao Bonded Zone rubber stocks continued to rise to 16.62 million tons, compared with mid-February 156,600 tons overall increase of 0.96 million tons, or 6.13%. Of which natural rubber 123,400 tons, an increase of 07,200 tons, an increase of 6.19%; synthetic rubber 38,400 tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons, an increase of 6.67%; composite plastic 04,400 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The inventory growth, in addition to natural rubber stocks as the main growth factor increased significantly, synthetic rubber stocks also increased. In addition, smoke film plastic, butadiene rubber stocks also have the rise of the potential. The main reason for the increase in inventories on the one hand is part of the pre-holiday sailing to Hong Kong, estimated 2-3 months to about 300,000 tons. On the other hand is the downstream factory started slightly down from the year ago, make up the bank has slowed down, so the current inventory is still in the rising cycle.
At present, although the tire business has gradually increased the operating rate, but due to the purchase of raw materials before the Spring Festival ample supply, coupled with higher raw material prices, the majority of corporate resistance appears, procurement enthusiasm is not high. If the March tire manufacturers prices, and downstream demand can not be successfully transmitted, then the enthusiasm of the late procurement of raw materials is bound to further frustrated.
Synthetic rubber decreased in water
Despite the optimistic performance of domestic heavy truck sales, but the passenger car market sales growth is not this success. It is understood that in January domestic passenger car production and sales than in 2016, respectively, fell 4.2% and 1.1%. In the high base of the constraints, is expected to slow growth in February is also difficult to optimistic changes. At the same time, the China Automobile Dealers Association issued a survey of China’s auto dealers inventory early warning index, February inventory early warning index of 66.6%, up 5.1 percentage points over January, hit a new high since March 2015.
Poor sales of passenger cars to a certain extent, inhibit the growth of synthetic rubber demand. In February, synthetic rubber market was finished lower. After the Spring Festival, Sinopec and PetroChina raised prices twice to promote the synthetic rubber market offer rose. But because the terminal enterprise raw material inventory and postganglionic start to recover slower than expected, the contractor in the capital gradually showing pressure, some contractors began to lower prices ship and lead to profit-taking, the market mentality of a sharp change and the emergence of stampede , Prices fell rapidly. 20, Sinopec and PetroChina and other enterprises have lowered the price of synthetic rubber, coupled with natural rubber and butadiene are also shown weak, the market increasingly cold weather, the industry offer no bottom line down, the actual transaction price to discuss the main Far upside down in the factory, trading light. Relatively speaking, due to the terminal business demand for butadiene rubber slightly stronger, the overall performance of better than styrene butadiene rubber.
Yesterday, Hujiao 1705 contract in the rebound to 19250 yuan / ton encountered near the short selling and fall, the afternoon is turning green fell, we can see the negative factors on the price of the city has a greater impact on the role of upside. Combined with the above a few bad, I believe that the mid-term adjustment of Hujiao market has not yet ended, easy to fall difficult to rise more likely.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/36903.html
