[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: October 29, 2012

MARKET COMMENTARY

Amidst lacklustre trades, natural rubber prices in the Indian market were held in tight ranges during the previous week. Consecutive holidays owing to ‘Dussera’ and ‘Bakrid’ kept the activities mostly subdued. In the ready market, RSS4 grade rubber was hovering near the seven week low while NMCE rubber futures were seen inching up towards the close of the week. The benchmark November rubber futures posted its first weekly gain in four in the previous week. Looking forward, buying interest is likely to emerge as prices are currently hovering near seven week low and the difference between quotes in local and international markets have narrowed down. Yet, climatic conditions remaining mostly favourable and markets currently moving through peak production period is likely to cap gains. Moreover, steep drop in crude oil prices will also weigh on.

MARKET NEWS

Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 3.8 per cent to 59793 tonnes in the previous week.
Tocom October rubber futures expired with only 67 lots being delivered compared to 277 lots delivered in the previous month.
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the country’s rubber exports are anticipated to rise 61 per cent to 100000 this month.
Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences says China plans 14000ha of new rubber planting and replant 10000ha of old rubber trees in next five years.
According to ANRPC, rubber production among its member countries may increase to its highest level in at least nine years to 11.1 million metric tonnes in 2013.
NCDEX have introduced changes in packing method for rubber and delivery shall be in 50kg bales packed with polythene sheets
Natural rubber imports by China remain unchanged on month on month basis. The country imported 210000 tonnes of natural rubber in September. However, on year on year basis, the imports showed a decline of 12.5 per cent.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Nov NMCE

Prices were held near the trend line support of 17700 and a pullback towards 18100 was seen from there off in the previous week. Now, 18300 pose to be the immediate resistance which it requires to clear and sustain for further upsides initially towards 18500. However, unsuccessful attempts to sustain the same may see a turn lower towards 17850-17700 and slippage past 17700 will induce further weakness.

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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