2013 New Year’s Day holiday, the outer disk the rubber closed for four days. In the meantime, the U.S. bipartisan compromise bill to avoid financial fall into the cliff critical situation, the global commodity markets therefore greatly encouraged, so as to stimulate the Day glue on the price of the accelerated rise in the post Tiaokonggaokai, setting a new high of 8 months. In addition, the U.S. dollar against the yen frequently strong, but also enhance the attractiveness of the Japanese rubber. As of Friday’s close, the Japanese rubber 06 contract closed at the highest bit 313.4 yen / kg, or 3.6%.
Stable and little decrease U.S. unemployment rate and the economic recovery is expected to procure Fed easing within the event of a disagreement between the members that, before the end of 2013 should slow or stop the asset purchase is the right move, because the balance sheet The scale has been expanded to the limits. In this speech, the market worried about the dollar liquidity appears failure turn into buying risk aversion also contributed significantly stronger dollar index, a larger sell-off and yen.In addition, since completing the formation of the new cabinet of Japan, it is stepping up the implementation of the economic recovery program.Especially Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s hardline stance has repeatedly put pressure on the central bank, forcing it to release more liquidity, but also led to the further deepening of yen weakness. Taking into account the internal and external factors influence, I believe that the yen devaluation trend in the future will show accelerated state, while the Japanese rubber will also continue to benefit from the devaluation premium benefits.
Japanese authorities continued loose monetary measures, but lack of liberal tax policy with the material will be difficult to restore domestic demand. It is understood that the beginning of this year, Japan will enter the tax increases era, not only the personal income tax will be raised, and resident tax and consumption tax will began to increase in 2014, which undoubtedly will bring greater economic burden to the Japanese families, consumer confidence in the prospects followed by weakening. I believe that, between tax policy and monetary policy, “a collection of a release is not only difficult to compatible, but also difficult to achieve Shinzo Abe promised economic promise.
Current day the glue strength depends on the depreciation of the yen is expected to also looking forward to the consumer of this year, strong demand outlook, and the twists and turns of the weather conditions in producing countries. Look at the moment, the market sentiment is more inclined to the future supply and demand of natural rubber surface backward bullish environment, but Day glue short-term profit taking began backlog rose quickly makes the risk of technical correction will appear at any time in the week.
Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/12227.html
