[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: January 10, 2013
MARKET COMMENTARY
Sentiments were mixed in the local natural rubber market on Thursday. RSS4 in the spot market improved slightly while in NMCE, rubber futures were seen declining. However, the commodity has been trapped in narrow ranges for the last few days in the futures as well as spot market. The underlying market fundamentals are mixed, keeping prices in tight ranges. On the one hand, uptrend in the overseas market along with limited supplies lent firm support to prices. Also, the peak production season is about to end soon, to be followed by ‘wintering’ season when generally the production will be on the lower side. On the other hand, however, muted demand, sluggish auto sales along with rising stockpiles in NMCE accredited warehouses weighed on.
Natural rubber prices are seen resuming its uptrend in the overseas market after taking a brief pause. TOCOM rubber futures hit a fresh eight month high tracking gains in equities and on weaker yen. Stronger than anticipated trade balance data from China added to the positive momentum.
MARKET NEWS
SIAM again revised lower the car sales growth forecast for 2012- 13 to 0-1.0 per cent mainly owing to high inflation, slowing economy and rising fuel costs.
Natural rubber imports by China declined to 210000 tonnes in December from 220000 in the previous month.
With 1.01 million tons of natural rubber exported in 2012, up 23.8 percent over 2011, Vietnam became the world’s third largest natural rubber exporter after Thailand and Indonesia, Communist Party of Vietnam Online Newspaper reported on Tuesday.
Japan’s motor vehicle sales dropped 3.4 percent to 212,429 units in December for a fourth month of decline, according to data released by the Japan Auto Dealers Association.
According to ANRPC, natural rubber consumption by China rose 6.4 per cent to 3.83 million tons, while in India gained 3.9 per cent to 995,000 tonnes during 2012. Natural rubber production among its member countries last year amounted to 8.06m tons, excluding data from Thailand during November and December and from Indonesia during June to December as against a total of 10.3m tons in 2011.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Prices continued its consolidation inside 17100-16500 ranges and require a break out from either the sides for further directional moves. Successful moves to break and sustain 17100 regions are likely to take prices higher towards 17240/17400 or more. Slippage past 16500 may induce further weakness.
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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