I believe that Shanghai rubber / rubber price relationship between the impact of rubberprices relatively stronger efforts basis liters of water pattern and synthetic rubber price advantage, the pressure to some extent on the price of natural rubber. From the perspective of the price department, 2013 Shanghai rubber will continue to maintain the pace of the shock rise.
Hedge selling pressure strong
Since late August 2012, the the accompanying rubber futures wave rally to Mandarin Shanghai rubber index estimates the period now basis by nearly a year’s premium status to a liter of water, the sharpest when more than 1500 yuan / ton, for hands stock enterprises, the profit space has been taken to sell the hedging.
Change from futures warehouse, enthusiasm hedging sale indeed be driven up. By the end of August 2012, a group of more than the Senju the storage warehouse receipts, opened a sustained and rapid growth momentum of the previous period deliverable inventory this round. In early December, the total inventory beyond the peak in 2011, the same month in mid-Yunnan region deliverable library has filled the spot. The end of the reporting statute, warehouse receipts total inventory has already more than 60,000 tons. Yunnan and Hainan delivery of the most active in the production areas, due to these two places, and in line with the stock of deliverable grade spot is also a great delivery operation is very convenient.
Currency factors will continue to ferment
Turning to glue the price Shanghai rubber with Japan relations, inevitably involve the exchange rate issue. Shanghai rubber in yuan-denominated Day glue yen, the convergence of the two currencies generally require comparison with the dollar equivalent before, excluding currency factors can impact on the price relationship between.
Since the beginning of 2012, the impact of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan has repeatedly continued depreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar. The beginning of the year, $ 1 equivalent to 76.69 yen, Dec. 27 to 1 ratio of 86.49, including a depreciation cycle in mid-September, the yen down more than 9%, while segments Shanghai rubber with Day glue the ratio slipped to 8.26 percent, the same day the glue Shanghai rubber relatively strong exchange rate factors contributed.
The author believes that the possibility of the yen continued to depreciate in 2013 is still very high. On December 26, the Bank of Japan announced in November monetary policy meeting minutes release the wishes of further monetary easing. In addition, the need to focus, the style of the new Japanese government economic policy hawks. The new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said the Bank of Japan monetary policy should target inflation rate of 1% was revised upward to 2%, thus the need to implement far more than previous large-scale quantitative easing, the yen market outlook easy or difficult up.
To substitute role or show
In accordance with the process of tire production, natural rubber and synthetic rubber will occupy a certain proportion in the raw materials and different deployment of the two types of rubber, and the ratio is called the tire formulations. Therefore, part of the needs of the natural rubber in the tire on the amount can be synthetic rubber substitute. In general, the price of natural rubber will be more expensive than synthetic rubber, when both prices deviate from the level of 5000 yuan / ton, the substitution effect will appear.
The beginning of the fourth quarter of 2012, upstream butadiene supply to increase the offer down, the rapid decline in synthetic rubber, natural rubber spreads gradually over 5000 yuan / ton. Until completion of the report, styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber and Hainan private Hainan standard glue spreads reached 7,000 yuan / ton and 6,900 yuan / ton, if this trend continued in the medium to long term, the tire manufacturers may adjust the recipe reduce the amount of natural rubber use.
Of course, in recent years, market statistics, synthetic rubber, natural rubber prices are not as strongly expected, but is more natural rubber synthetic rubber force, remain concerned about the spread between the two relationships, but should not be too multiple reference.
Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/12334.html
