By Yium Tavarolit
The Movements of Global Stocks, Finance and Energy
Asian stock markets closed mixed on Friday ahead of a release of Chinese economic data on the following Saturday. The Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1% higher to 2,104.93 while the Hang Seng index was up 0.7% at 21,136.43. The Nikkei Stock Average was down 0.2% at 8,534.12 whereas the Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up less than 0.1% to 4,486.60.
European stock markets fell on Friday as market sentiment was weighed down by concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth, which led the Stoxx Europe 600 index to close 0.5 % lower at 269.43, ending the week with a 1.7% loss. In the meantime, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 index fell 0.6% to 5,793.32. The CAC 40 index lost 0.7% to 3,389.08, and Germany’s DAX 30 index closed down 0.7% at 7,232.49.
The three stock indices on Wall Street moved south most of the week after the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered their global economic growth forecasts early in the week. The Dow finished with a gain of 2.46 points, or 0.02%, to 13,328.85 on Friday, but the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index declined 4.25 points, or 0.30%, to 1,428.59, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.30 points, or 0.17%, to 3,044.11.
The euro weakened against the dollar from Monday to Wednesday as the forex investors were concerned about Spain’s reluctance to formally request aid from the euro zone bailout fund.
In contrast, the euro returned to strengthened against the dollar on Thursday and Friday after investors digested the downgrade of Spain’s credit rating and raised bets on the move that would put pressure on the Spanish government to finally seek a long awaited bailout from the EU.
At 1025 GMT, the euro was trading at US$1.2976 compared with US$1.2927 late Thursday inNew York. The dollar was at Y78.46 from Y78.35 and sterling was trading at US$1.6055 from US$1.6044.
Crude oil futures on New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) stayed on an uptrend most of the week because of the tension in a border dispute between Turkey and Syria and the tension in the Middle-East. However, light, sweet crude for November delivery on Nymex fell US$0.21 to US$91.86 a barrel, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Rubber Markets
Bearish sentiment weighed on rubber futures and physical rubber markets in Asia after Tokyorubber futures resumed on Tuesday and the IMF said it expected the world economy would grow 3.3% this year, down from the 3.5% growth it predicted in July.
The IMF’s bearish economic prediction could convince market players on rubber futures to liquidate their long positions for some profit-taking later in the week as they expected a further fall in natural rubber (NR) prices. This resulted in significant falls in NR prices on Friday compared with an earlier Friday as shown in the table below.
|
Description |
12-Oct-12 |
5-Oct-12 |
Change |
Unit |
|
IRCo’s DCP |
310.13 |
317.46 |
-7.33 |
US cents/kg |
|
TOCOM/RSS3 * |
|
|
|
|
|
– Oct. |
257.50 |
264.20 |
-6.70 |
Yen/kg |
|
– Mar. |
264.50 |
269.90 |
-5.40 |
Yen/kg |
|
– Volume |
9,491 |
9,119 |
372 |
Lots |
|
SHFE/RSS3 ** |
25,540 |
Closed |
– |
Yuan/ton |
|
AFET/RSS3 |
|
|
|
|
|
– Nov. |
100.20 |
102.00 |
-1.80 |
THB/kg |
|
– May |
102.90 |
105.30 |
-2.40 |
THB/kg |
|
– Volume |
204 |
294 |
-90.00 |
Lots |
|
SMR20 *** |
308.00 |
322.00 |
-14.00 |
US cents/kg |
|
SIR20 *** |
301.00 |
306.00 |
-5.00 |
US cents/kg |
|
RRIT |
|
|
|
|
|
– RSS3 |
100.55 |
102.25 |
-1.70 |
THB/kg |
|
– STR20 |
92.55 |
94.45 |
-1.90 |
THB/kg |
|
– USS3 |
87.90 |
91.69 |
-3.79 |
THB/kg |
|
– Conc. Latex |
63.80 |
65.05 |
-1.25 |
THB/kg |
|
– Field Latex |
83.00 |
90.00 |
-7.00 |
THB/kg |
|
Source: IRCo Notes: * The day sessions ** The most active month is Jan. 2013 *** Offers, fob prices for Nov. & Dec. deliveries |
||||
On the technical front, IRCo’s MACD and Signal Line retreated slightly in positive territory on Friday as well as its RSI, which fell from 73.22% on an earlier Friday to 63.79% on Friday.
Anyhow, IRCo’s technical charts still indicate an uptrend in the coming week despite investor concerns about the global economic slowdown, the lingering European debt problems, the tumbling stock markets in the U.S. and Europe but the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Please note that a decision of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Tuesday to inject 265 billion yuan into the money market by offering reverse repurchase agreements, in an attempt to ease monetary conditions and to bolster the slowing economy, will surely lend support for the current Chinese investment and consumption to improve gradually and firmly. That effort is expected to boost auto sales in China as well.
Lastly, it is expected that NR prices will remain volatile but still stay in an uptrend in the coming week, resulting from the PBOC’s effort and unsteady rains in southern Thailand.
Source: IRCo
