MARKET COMMENTARY
- Activities remained sluggish in the local natural rubber market on Monday as NMCE and major TOCOM exchange remained closed. In the physical market, in muted trades, RSS4 ruled flat with a mild negative bias. NMCE remained shut on Monday on account of ‘Uttarayan’. Meanwhile, during the last week prices have been stuck in narrow ranges awaiting fresh triggers. The underlying market fundamentals were mixed. Bullish trend prevailing in the overseas market, lowering prospects of imports and approaching lean production season provided firm support. However, rising stockpiles in warehouses, slowing auto sales and subdued demand capped gains.
- On Tuesday, natural rubber prices are seen swinging between positive and negative territories. TOCOM exchange reopened today after an extended weekend holiday and is seen inching up backed by a weaker yen. In the mean time, AFET and SHFE rubber futures are trading in narrow ranges.
MARKET NEWS
- According to Indonesian Rubber Association, the country’s natural rubber output is seen rising by seven per cent in 2013 to 3.2 million tonnes due to higher yields.
- Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 1.8 per cent to 101482 tonnes the previous week.
- SIAM again revised lower the car sales growth forecast for 2012- 13 to 0-1.0 per cent mainly owing to high inflation, slowing economy and rising fuel costs.
- Natural rubber imports by China declined to 210000 tonnes in December from 220000 in the previous month.
- With 1.01 million tons of natural rubber exported in 2012, up 23.8 percent over 2011, Vietnam became the world’s third largest natural rubber exporter after Thailand and Indonesia, Communist Party of Vietnam Online Newspaper reported on Tuesday.
- Japan’s motor vehicle sales dropped 3.4 percent to 212,429 units in December for a fourth month of decline, according to data released by the Japan Auto Dealers Association.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Prices came towards the lower end of the consolidation range of 16500-17100 during the last weekend. For the day, if the support at 16500 is held, could see a pullback to 16700/16860 levels or more, but requires clearing 17100 for any further upsides. Slippage past 16500 may induce weakness possibly towards 16400-16200 regions. Resistances
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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