MARKET COMMENTARY
Even as the trend stayed weak, natural rubber in the Indian market were held near the recent lows. On Thursday, the most active February rubber futures were seen bouncing back after testing four week low. In the physical market, quotes for RSS4 were marginally up after trading weak during the morning trades. Muted buying interest continued to weigh on prices though, anticipation of recovery as the lean production season is approaching, provided lower level support. A rebound witnessed in the major overseas markets lifted the sentiments too.
As the week’s session culminates, natural rubber is seen ticking higher buoyed by an upbeat US and Chinese data. TOCOM rubber futures climbed nearly three per cent while SHFE and AFET rubber futures rose over one per cent. Rise in crude oil prices and a weaker yen too lifted the prices. The Chinese GDP numbers released earlier today indicated a rebound in economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2012, abating worries over a hard landing of the economy.
MARKET NEWS
China’s GDP rose to 7.9 per cent in the Q4 of 2012 on a YoY basis following seven straight quarters of slowdown. Industrial production recorded a growth of 10.3 per cent in December while retail sales rose 15.2 per cent during the same period on YoY basis.
According to Thai Deputy Agriculture Minister, the govt. was intending to continue the rubber intervention scheme until it expires in March. Rubber stocks held by the Thai govt. rose 18 per cent from November to 200000 tonnes.
EU new car sales plunged 8.2 per cent to a 17-year low in 2012, registering its biggest annual drop since 1993.
NMCE December natural rubber delivery soared with 1544 tonnes being delivered against 183 tonnes during the same period the previous year, registering 800 per cent rise.
Natural rubber imports by India slumped 35.63 per cent in December to 13611 tonnes on YoY basis, according to Rubber Board. Consumption dropped 1.3 per cent to 78000 tonnes while production rose 3.0 per cent to 110000 tonnes during the same period.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Prices were again held near 16000 in the previous session for a bounce back towards 16300 levels. While the broad trend still stays on the weaker side, successful attempts to move past 16400 is likely to lift prices probably towards 16540-16700 regions or more. Now, it requires clearing the congestion support range of 15900-15700 for further downsides.
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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