MARKET COMMENTARY
Decline in natural rubber consumption and sluggish off-take from the tyre manufacturers amidst the peak production season kept natural rubber prices under pressure. In the spot market, quotes for RSS4 are hovering near weakest since late-December. In NMCE, the most active February rubber futures posted a weekly loss of about 4.18 per cent during the gone by week. However, restricted arrivals to the market limited steep downside. Anticipation of a recovery in natural rubber prices in coming months as ‘wintering’ is to begin in February, probably encouraged growers to hold back their produce.
Natural rubber in the overseas market opened the week’s session on a weaker note. On Monday, TOCOM rubber futures retreated after its longest winning streak since November 2007, tracking movements in Japanese yen ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week. AFET and SHFE rubber futures are seen declining too. Also, worries over demand from China weighed on the sentiments.
MARKET NEWS
The Forward Markets’ Commission (FMC), under the Union Ministry of Consumer Affairs, will hold a stakeholders’ meet for rubber, pepper and cardamom participants here on Monday to discuss measures that will help streamline the price and risk management of commodities
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE declined 0.1 per cent to 101303 tonnes.
China’s GDP rose to 7.9 per cent in the Q4 of 2012 on a YoY basis following seven straight quarters of slowdown. Industrial production recorded a growth of 10.3 per cent in December while retail sales rose 15.2 per cent during the same period on YoY basis.
According to Thai Deputy Agriculture Minister, the govt. was intending to continue the rubber intervention scheme until it expires in March. Rubber stocks held by the Thai govt. rose 18 per cent from November to 200000 tonnes.
NMCE December natural rubber delivery soared with 1544 tonnes being delivered against 183 tonnes during the same period the previous year, registering 800 per cent rise.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Broad Trend: Weak Near
Term: Sideways to Negative.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16380/16540 |
16700-16400-15900 |
16000/15900 |
|
16620-16700 |
|
15800/15700 |
|
16860/16960 |
|
15540/15260 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
Download this report (full content – PDF file) bellow:
