MARKET COMMENTARY
Even as the broad trend stayed weak, NMCE rubber futures were seen bouncing back on Wednesday. The benchmark February rubber futures following a weak opening was seen rebounding to culminate the session over one percent higher. Gains in the futures market helped restrict decline in spot prices. RSS4 traded mostly steady near Rs.159/kg. Expectations of lower imports as local natural rubber prices are on a discount to that prevailing in the international market, and with peak production season about to end soon probably improved sentiments. However, softening global natural rubber prices and fall in consumption are likely to weigh on.
A mixed trend is being witnessed in natural rubber in the overseas market on Thursday. The benchmark June rubber futures in TOCOM swung between positive and negative turf, while SHFE rubber futures fell sharply despite an upbeat manufacturing data from China. Meanwhile, Indonesian and Malaysian markets will remain closed today.
MARKET NEWS
According to IRSG, Production is set to outpace consumption by 179,000 metric tons this year and 153,000 tons in 2014.
According to AIRIA, rubber imports into India in January and February are likely to fall further on a sharp drop in local prices in the past three months due to lower December shipments.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and exporter, has no plans to sell government rubber stocks, which have been bought from farmers in an intervention program to shore up prices, on the overseas market, according to government adviser.
As a part of price support program, Thailand spent 17.4 billion baht to buy 182446 tonnes of rubber. Also, the Cabinet approved plan by Rubber Estate Organization to disburse 5.0 billion baht from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives to continue the program.
China’s GDP rose to 7.9 per cent in the Q4 of 2012 on a YoY basis following seven straight quarters of slowdown. Industrial production recorded a growth of 10.3 per cent in December while retail sales rose 15.2 per cent during the same period on YoY basis.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Broad Trend: Weak
Near Term: Unsuccessful attempts to clear 16250 could again induce selling pressure.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16050/16240 |
16240-15700 |
15700/15540 |
|
16400/16540 |
15260/15100 |
|
|
16700/16840 |
14950/14700 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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