MARKET COMMENTARY
In the week gone by, sentiments stayed weak in the local natural rubber market. Easing natural rubber prices in the global markets along with muted off-take from the tyre sector, slowing consumption and rise in production weighed on. Yet, anticipation of recovery in prices as the peak production is to end soon and declining imports provided firm support, restricting sharp downsides. In the physical market prices were held in thin ranges and were varying around Rs.159 a kg while NMCE rubber futures posted weekly loss of about two per cent. Also, consecutive holidays owing to Id-E-Milad and Republic Day towards the close of the week kept activities sluggish.
Natural rubber prices are seen trading with a mild negative bias in the overseas market on Monday. While concerns over demand from China continued to weigh on the sentiments, strengthening yen added further pressure on TOCOM rubber futures to edge lower. SHFE and AFET rubber futures dropped as well. Meanwhile, Malaysian markets will remain closed today on account of ‘Thaipusam’.
MARKET NEWS
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the nation shipped 117,000 tons of rubber in Dec., up 11% from previous assessment of 105,000 tons.
TOCOm January rubber futures expired with 124 lots being delivered compared to 288 lots being delivered in December.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 3.3 per cent 98007 tonnes in the previous week. According to reports, the decline is largely owing to storage regulations that forced some merchants to withdraw stocks.
According to IRSG, Production is set to outpace consumption by 179,000 metric tons this year and 153,000 tons in 2014.
According to AIRIA, rubber imports into India in January and February are likely to fall further on a sharp drop in local prices in the past three months due to lower December shipments.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and exporter, has no plans to sell government rubber stocks, which have been bought from farmers in an intervention program to shore up prices, on the overseas market, according to government adviser.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Broad Trend: Weak
Near Term: Unsuccessful attempts to clear 16250 could again induce selling pressure.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16050/16240 |
16240-15700 |
15700/15540 |
|
16400/16540 |
15260/15100 |
|
|
16700/16840 |
14950/14700 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
Download this report (full content – PDF file) bellow:
