MARKET COMMENTARY
Sentiments stayed feeble in the local natural rubber market. On Wednesday, RSS4 grade rubber in the physical market ruled flat. Quotes in the physical market were hovering near 34-month low. In NMCE, the grade resumed its downtrend, reversing the previous session gains. Muted off-take from the tyre sector continued to hurt sentiments amidst rising production and stocks. Yet, with peak production season to culminate and natural rubber in the local market trading on a discount to that in the overseas market, prices likely to arrest steep plunges. Moreover, the recent monetary policy moves by RBI is likely to have a positive impact on the ailing auto sector in the country and thereby aid natural rubber market.
A mixed trend is being witnessed in the global natural rubber market on Thursday. TOCOM and AFET rubber futures eased after rising last day while SHFE managed to sustain the previous session gains. Unanticipated slowdown in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2012 and decline in Japanese industrial production hurt overall market sentiments.
MARKET NEWS
According to Malaysian Rubber Board, natural rubber output may expand 6.5 per cent in 2013 on improving yield and higher prices.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber inventories in the Japanese ports fell by 202 tonnes to 6934 tonnes in the 10 days to January 10 from a four month peak marked at the end of 2012
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the nation shipped 117,000 tons of rubber in Dec., up 11% from previous assessment of 105,000 tons.
TOCOM January rubber futures expired with 124 lots being delivered compared to 288 lots being delivered in December.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 3.3 per cent 98007 tonnes in the previous week. According to reports, the decline is largely owing to storage regulations that forced some merchants to withdraw stocks.
According to IRSG, Production is set to outpace consumption by 179,000 metric tons this year and 153,000 tons in 2014.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE Broad Trend: Weak Near Term: Inability to hold 15500 could see prolongation of the ensuing weakness.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15800/15900 |
15900-15500 |
15540/15260 |
|
16050/16240 |
|
15100/14950 |
|
16400/16540 |
|
14700/14500 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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