Oil prices set for fourth straight week of gains

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices eased from three-year highs on Friday but were still on track to end the week higher for a fourth week in a row.

Brent crude futures () traded 15 cents lower at $69.11 a barrel at 1011 GMT. The contract broke above $70 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since December 2014.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures () were at $63.45 a barrel, down 35 cents. WTI the day before rose to its strongest since late 2014 at $64.77.

“It is remarkable to see that most market analysts believe that prices have rallied too far since consensus forecasts is significantly lower than the current spot prices,” Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro, said in a note.

“On the other hand, most investors are still positioned to benefit from further price gains,” he said.

Analysts and traders warned about the risks of a price correction since the start of 2018, but they say overall market conditions remain strong, mainly due to output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia.

In addition to the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) that are expected to last until the end of 2018, oil prices have found support from eight consecutive weeks of U.S. crude inventory drops.

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell almost 5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 5, to 419.5 million barrels, or slightly below the five-year average of just over 420 million barrels, the target for OPEC and others involved in output cuts.

Relatively weak China December oil data weighed on prices, traders and analysts said. China’s crude imports in December fell 9 percent month-on-month to 33.7 million tonnes, or 7.97 million barrels per day, customs data showed.

“The end of year decline is highly counter-seasonal, being the first m-o-m decline in December in at least five years,” analysts at Vienna-based consultancy JBC Energy said.

This has contributed to a fall in Singapore refinery profit margins to below $6 per barrel this month, their lowest seasonal level in five years, leading some refiners to scale down crude runs.

An expected rise in U.S. oil production to above 10 million bpd from 9.5 million bpd now has also weighed.

A market survey of more than 1,000 energy professionals conducted by Reuters in January showed crude price expectations in a range of $60 to $70 per barrel for 2018.

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