MARKET COMMENTARY
The broad trend stayed bearish in the local natural rubber market pressured by higher production and rising stockpiles amidst subdued demand from the major natural rubber consuming sector. In the week gone by, RSS4 was hovering near its weakest in 34- months and prices were held in tight ranges of around Rs.158-156 a kg in the physical market. In NMCE, the most active March rubber futures varied between 15700-16100 ranges, awaiting fresh triggers for further directional moves. Even as the trend remains bearish, steep downsides are restricted with upcoming lean production season and on higher premium of overseas prices to that of the local prices. Moreover, activities may be subdued initially as trend setting TOCOM exchange, SHFE and Malaysian markets will remain closed on Monday. Top natural rubber consumer China will remain absent from the market for a week as the nation celebrates Lunar New Year this week.
MARKET NEWS
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 1.2% to 100015 tonnes.
Natural rubber imports by China rose 19 per cent in January to 250000 tonnes on MoM basis.
According to Rubber Board, India’s synthetic rubber consumption rose by 17 per cent to 36,710 tonnes in October last year while the production rose by 5 per cent to 9,006 tonnes during the period.
According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, rubber imports by the top consumer China surged 18 per cent during 2013 to 3.37 million tonnes.
According to Malaysian Rubber Board, natural rubber output may expand 6.5 per cent in 2013 on improving yield and higher prices.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber inventories in the Japanese ports fell by 202 tonnes to 6934 tonnes in the 10 days to January 10 from a four month peak marked at the end of 2012
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the nation shipped 117,000 tons of rubber in Dec., up 11% from previous assessment of 105,000 tons.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Mar NMCE
Broad Trend: Bearish
Near Term: Requires clearing resistance near 16250 levels to lessen the prevailing weakness.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15960/16050 |
16250-15500 |
15700/15500 |
|
16250/16400 |
|
15380/15260 |
|
16540/16700 |
|
15100/14900 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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