MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber rebounded in the Indian markets on Tuesday. In the physical market, RSS4 inched up from its 35-month low it hit earlier this week while, NMCE rubber futures bounced back rising over one per cent probably buoyed by climbing natural rubber prices in the overseas market. Currently, local natural rubber prices are a way lower to that in the international market, making imports costlier and increasing opportunities for exports and re-exports. However, the broad trend in the Indian natural rubber market continue to be on the weaker side as consumption declines amidst slowing auto sales and unfavourable macro economic conditions.
On Wednesday, a mixed trend is being witnessed in natural rubber in the overseas market. TOCOM rubber futures were swinging between positive and negative turfs while AFET rubber futures are seen extending the previous session gains. Rise in crude oil prices supported the sentiments though absence of China weighed on.
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According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers India’s car sales and commercial vehicles sales dropped by 12.44 and 9.51 percent respectively in January.
According to Rubber Board, India’s natural rubber production declined by 5 per cent to 97,000 tonnes in January, while consumption fell by 9 per cent to 75,000 tonnes.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 1.2% to 100015 tonnes.
Natural rubber imports by China rose 19 per cent in January to 250000 tonnes on MoM basis.
According to Rubber Board, India’s synthetic rubber consumption rose by 17 per cent to 36,710 tonnes in October last year while the production rose by 5 per cent to 9,006 tonnes during the period.
According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, rubber imports by the top consumer China surged 18 per cent during 2013 to 3.37 million tonnes.
According to Malaysian Rubber Board, natural rubber output may expand 6.5 per cent in 2013 on improving yield and higher prices.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Mar NMCE
Broad Trend: Bearish
Near Term: Requires clearing resistance near 16250 levels to lessen the prevailing weakness.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 15960/16050 | 16250-15500 | 15800/15650 |
| 16250/16400 | 15500/15380 | |
| 16540/16700 | 15260/15100 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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