MARKET COMMENTARY
In the week gone by, natural rubber continued to consolidate in the Indian markets. While the broad trend stayed weak, physical prices for RSS4 grade rubber were caught in very thin ranges of Rs.155.50-157.00 per kg. A similar trend was witnessed in the futures market too. Despite a dip in production in January, fall in consumption, muted demand, dragging auto sales and rise in stockpiles weighed on the overall market sentiments. Also, on the economic front the conditions are not favourable with economy anticipated to grow at its slowest pace in almost a decade. With the natural rubber prices on the international market at a premium to the local prices, export opportunities are likely to cushion prices from steep falls.
SHFE rubber futures are in red, as the exchange reopened after the week long Lunar New Year holidays while TOCOM rubber futures bounced back from its two week low after yen weakened following the G20 meeting.
MARKET NEWS
Thailand has spent 22 billion baht buying 198,000 tons from farmers above market rates to boost local prices, according to Yuttapong Charasathien, deputy farm minister.
According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers India’s car sales and commercial vehicles sales dropped by 12.44 and 9.51 percent respectively in January.
According to Rubber Board, India’s natural rubber production declined by 5 per cent to 97,000 tonnes in January, while consumption fell by 9 per cent to 75,000 tonnes.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 1.2% to 100015 tonnes.
Natural rubber imports by China rose 19 per cent in January to 250000 tonnes on MoM basis.
According to Rubber Board, India’s synthetic rubber consumption rose by 17 per cent to 36,710 tonnes in October last year while the production rose by 5 per cent to 9,006 tonnes during the period.
According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, rubber imports by the top consumer China surged 18 per cent during 2013 to 3.37 million tonnes.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Mar NMCE
Broad Trend: Bearish
Near Term: As long as 16250 caps upside, prices may succumb to higher level selling and slippage past 15500 to strengthen the prevailing bearish trend.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16950/16050 |
16250-15500 |
15800/15650 |
|
16250/16400 |
|
15500/15380 |
|
16540/16700 |
|
15260/15100 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
