CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — New car sales are expected to continue their heady growth when October figures come out this week, with many marques posting double-digit gains even as incentive spending slows down.
For the month, TrueCar.com estimates new light-vehicle sales will come in at 1,137,744 units, up 11.5% from October 2011. That translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, or SAAR, of 14.9 million new car sales, compared with 13.3 million in the same month a year ago but down fractionally from September 2012.
While increases are seen coming across the board, the foreign marques — especially Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG — look to have the biggest at 22% and 25%, respectively. They are joined in the top ranks by Chrysler Group (controlled by Fiat) at 14.8%, Honda Motor Co. at 13.9% and Hyundai at 13.7%.
Rounding out the list, TrueCar.com predicts growth of 7.3% for General Motors Co. , 5.3% for Ford Motor Co. and 4.6% for Nissan Motor Co.
Margins are looking good, too: The industry-average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,353, TrueCar.com noted, down 5.6% from October 2011.
“New-car sales are on automatic pilot,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. “October was a robust start to Q4 sales, with most manufacturers posting double-digit gains while continuing to lower incentives spending.”
Further out, he added, “we expect this recovery momentum to continue into the next year, with 2013 sales reaching 15.5 million units.”
For its part, Edmunds.com sees new-car sales growing 11.1% to 1,132,878 and a SAAR of 14.8 million, the second-highest of the year and the best October since 2007.
The company added that “the biggest October surprises are reserved for Honda and Nissan, which … will enjoy their biggest October sales ever in the U.S,” largely due to the popularity of redesigned 2013 Honda Accord and the 2013 Nissan Altima.
“These record-breaking numbers are a testament to the American car buyer’s appetite for all-new redesigned and refreshed models,” according to Edmunds.com senior analyst Michelle Krebs. “The Accord and Altima have been hits for Honda and Nissan, respectively, for a very long time, and when you can make a good thing even better, the market will absolutely respond.”
While unit growth will continue, Edmunds.com holds that General Motors and Chrysler will be the only two major auto makers to see their market shares slip.
“Every auto maker can have a bad month, but this isn’t exactly the best timing for GM and Chrysler,” Krebs said. “Their October sales numbers are under more of a microscope than usual with Election Day around the corner and the auto bailout top of mind for the presidential candidates, many voters and a host of pundits.”
Source: Market Watch
