Rubber reviews: February 22

Shanghai rubber decline accelerated Thursday, the Fed hinted that it might QE or early termination of the State Council to expand the scope of individual housing property tax pilot, the central bank this week, the net return 910 billion record heavy messages suppressed disk, collective financial markets tumbled, Shanghai rubber decline accelerated .The main contract Shanghai rubber closing 25085 1309 than the previous day’s settlement price fell 905 points, with a total turnover of 413,814 hand, total open interest of 160,178 hand to lighten up the 20,506 hands.

[Fundamental analysis]

, Shanghai rubber slump, businesses and more entertained not offer, the Shanghai regional natural rubber offer scarce, few non-traded market, currently offer are as follows: Yunnan, Hainan, state-run latex reported 25,200 yuan / ton., Hainan state SCR5 # reported 22,700 yuan / ton , the Yunnan state-run standard two reported 22,600 yuan / ton; heard Thailand 3 # smoke piece 17 tax reported 24,800 yuan / ton. Heard of Vietnam 17 tax reported 23,500 yuan / ton.

2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced on February 21 the the rubber stocks Daily: natural rubber futures stock of 49,550 tons, an increase of 500 tons more than the previous day.

As of January 30, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, natural rubber + compound inventory of approximately 279,300 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons over six weeks ago. Rubber total inventory of 32.8 million tons, increased by 1.4 million tons.

3, January natural rubber imports 140,000 tons, a decrease of 8.1% compared to the same period last year.China natural rubber imports in January compared to December last year, a decrease of 33.3%.

4, China’s tire production in November year-on-year increase of 6.9% to 8,123 million. Tire production in January-November total of 8.1198 billion, an increase of 4%.

In 2012, China imported a total of 2.18 million tons of natural rubber, 3.6% higher than in 2011 (2.1 million tons). Among them, China’s natural rubber imports in December 2012 to 210,000 tons the previous month (220,000 tons), down 4.55%, unchanged from the same period in 2011.

5, China’s total annual production of automotive 19,271,800, an increase of 4.6%, sales of automotive 19,306,400, an increase of 4.3%, and sales year-on-year growth rate increased 3.8 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points respectively compared to 2011. Where passenger car sales 15,523,700 and 15,495,200, an increase of 7.2% and 7.1%, respectively, year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales of 3,748,100, and 3,811,200, a decrease of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively, year on year.

6, ANRPC latest monthly report showed that natural rubber production in 2012: Malaysia 92 million tons, down 7.6%; India 910,000 tons, an increase of 1.7%; China 795,000 tons, an increase of 9.4%; Sri Lanka 15 million tons, a year-on-year a decrease of 4.4%. In addition, the Philippines, 110,000 tons, Cambodia, 60,000 tons.

Technical Analysis and Expectation]

U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, the minutes showed that in January, many Fed officials said the quantitative easing policy has pushed up the inflation rate, and resulted in some damage to the financial stability of the market behavior. Thus investors worried that the Fed will be ahead of the end of the quantitative easing policy. The day the news of the global stock markets generally frustrated.

Fed to consider quantitative easing project a substantial adjustment, the dollar is on the strong side, the price of industrial homeopathic fall, coupled with poor economic data in the euro area, increased adjustment pressure. Dropped to 25,000 low order near Shanghai rubber crash back down to stronger short, to further test the lows.Another 05 and 09 spreads is significantly lower, buy 05 throwing 09 operating.

Risk Warning】

March 4-5: Euro Group meeting

March 7: European Central Bank Governing Council meeting

March 10: Italian general election (tentative)

April 4: European Central Bank Governing Council meeting

April 11-12: Euro Group meeting

May 2: European Central Bank Governing Council meeting

May 13-14: Euro Group meeting

June 6: European Central Bank Governing Council meeting

June 20-21: Euro Group meeting

[Natural rubber data chart]

Spot prices

Natural rubber registered warehouse receipts Daily: t

Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/13010.html

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