BUDAPEST: The zloty, Warsaw-listed bank stocks and Polish government bond yields eased on Thursday after the head of the country’s central bank (NBP) pushed back its projected schedule for interest rate hikes.
Adam Glapinski said late on Wednesday, after the bank lowered inflation forecasts, that he saw no reason to raise interest rates until the end of 2020.
Analysts had pegged the first likely hike from record-low rates to early next year.
Polish forward rate agreements did not fully price in the change in Glapinski’s forecast, projecting the first hike for July 2019, mBank analysts said in a note.
After Glapinski’s comments the zloty set a three-month low against the euro. On Thursday it traded near the lows, at 4.2069 at 0859 GMT, down 0.05 percent from its previous close.
Polish government bond yields dropped by a few basis points.
Warsaw’s bluechip equities index fell 0.4 percent, while shares in other regional bourses rose. The index of Warsaw-listed bank stocks dropped about 1 percent.
A slower rise in interest rates means less opportunity for lenders to boost revenues.
Analysts in a Reuters poll earlier this week projected that Central Europe’s robust growth and the prospects of monetary tightening could lift the Czech crown, the forint and the zloty over the coming year.
Investors will watch if Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting or Friday’s US payrolls figures add to expectations for monetary tightening in those markets, which would make currencies and bonds in emerging Europe relatively less attractive.
Inflation figures from central Europe are unlikely to change monetary policy prospects in the near term.
Hungary reported 1.9 percent annual inflation for February on Thursday, a tick below analysts’ forecasts, but they said that was unlikely to change the stance of the National Bank of Hungary, which is already running one of the loosest monetary policies in the world.
The Czech Republic is also seen reporting a fall in annual inflation in February to 2 percent on Friday, but the central bank there remains worried over the inflation trend and is expected to increase interest rates further.
Czech labour data released on Thursday showed the lowest jobless rate since 1997.
Source: Brecorder.com
