BUDAPEST: Central European government bonds and currencies mostly eased on Thursday as US and euro zone bond yields rose and there were concerns that investors could resume dollar buying at the expense of emerging markets.
The region’s most liquid currencies, the zloty and forint, shed 0.1 percent against the euro by 0859 GMT.
A strengthening of the dollar and a rise in the yield of US 10-year Treasuries have been a key influence on regional assets this month, prompting a sell-off in emerging markets.
The selling lost some steam on Wednesday, but investors still watch trends in dollar markets while keeping one eye on positioning indicators because some assets in emerging markets and Central Europe could have become oversold.
The last time emerging currencies were as oversold as now, in 2015, led to a rally, so positioning for a short-term reversal of the dollar rally “is starting to look interesting”, Societe Generale analyst Jason Daw said in a note.
However, “risk deployment should be modest”, he added, citing Federal Reserve interest rate tightening that could result in a stronger dollar in the medium term.
Positions to sell Central European assets including the forint may have become overstretched, one Budapest-based currency dealer said.
“But if there is a gobal repricing, this can only slow the process,” the dealer said.
“The original cause of the weakening – the rise in US and euro zone yields – does not appear to have ended, and that keeps the forint under pressure.”
A continuing rise in oil prices and concern over the policies of Italy’s incoming government keep upwards pressure on core market yields, while jitters in Turkish markets keeps sour investor sentiment on emerging markets, analysts said.
Romania led a rise in yields in Central Europe.
Hungarian bonds were steady in early trade, but the 10-year yield was near a nine-month high at 3.04 percent, staying on the weaker side of the 3 percent psyschological level.
Investors have ignored differences in monetary policy directions in the region during this month’s sell-off.
Yields have risen both in Hungary and Poland, the central banks of which signalled that they could keep rates on hold at record lows for years, and in the Czech Republic and Romania, where official interest rates have already started to rise.
Regional equities mostly rose slightly, in line with the international trend. The exception was Warsaw, where the bluechip index dropped 0.6 percent, dragged down by clothing retailer LPP and insurer PZU.
LPP reported a net loss for the first quarter on Thursday.
Source: Brecorder
