BUDAPEST: A retreat of the dollar helped Central European currencies rebound from multi-month lows on Thursday ahead of key government bond auctions in Bucharest, Budapest and Warsaw to test appetite after a sell-off in the past weeks.
The zloty firmed 0.3 percent against the euro by 0815 GMT, while the forint was steady at 319.2, still near the 23-month highs it reached in the previous session.
Sentiment improved as Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes did not suggest that it would accelerate its rate hikes, and because the Turkish central bank raised its interest rates, even though its big hike did not prevent a further slide in the lira.
But markets remain fragile as a rally in the dollar and US Treasury yields, which fuelled a sell-off in emerging markets in the past weeks, may resume, market participants said.
The crown also firmed slightly.
But trading at 25.827 versus the euro it remained near this year’s weakest levels, even though Czech central bank governor Jiri Rusnok reiterated late on Wednesday that the bank may increase rates faster if the crown does not strengthen enough.
If the crown continues to weaken, the next support level is at 25.9, KBC analysts said in a note.
“The weakening of the crown shows that there is still a lot of short-term foreign capital parked here, which can pack and leave quite quickly when the weather changes,” they said.
Weak demand forced the Czech government to cut its offer at a bond auction on Wednesday.
Regional bond markets were mixed on Thursday ahead of bond auctions in Hungary, Poland and Romania, even though the Fed minutes improved sentiment.
Poland’s 10-year yield dropped further by two basis points to 3.19 percent, erasing most of its 25 basis point rise earlier this month from end-April levels.
Hungary’s corresponding yield was steady at 3.13 percent, up by more than 60 basis points from April, and the surge could ensure sufficient demand at Thursday’s auction, traders and analysts said.
Romania’s auction of 2031-expiry bonds, an illiquid paper, could meet weak demand, ING analysts said in a note, even though a surge in inflation and Romanian central bank rate hikes have boosted the country’s debt yields to 4-year highs.
Despite worries that the state budget will overshoot its deficit targets, the leader of the ruling Social Democrats said late on Wednesday that the government would maintain its wage- and pension-boosting policies.
“Demand is likely to be poor (at the auction) and bids to be spread over a wide range,” the ING note said.
Source: Brecorder
