The macro side: This month commenced operation of repurchases recovery of mobility, but expected inflation data is expected to fall to a certain extent, to ease market fears; future foreign Cyprus and Italy is still the focus of the event, at the same time, U.S. economic data is also of concern, the dollar index after a continuous rise in the demand for short-term adjustments gradually.
Supply and demand side: Southeast Asia yield, the context of the domestic high inventory, easing domestic supply and demand pattern of increasingly harsh market bearish is expected to significantly around the downstream mentality is still weak overall market supply and demand pattern, no significant improvement in end demand, market bearish expected to delay the downstream market procurement pace, downstream manufacturers continue as used with the mining, tire factory finished goods inventory has reached a period of about 40 days, inventory, and procurement of raw materials inventory is ready around the end of April, the overall supply and demand pattern poor.
Technology, pre Shanghai rubber market technical correction, it is difficult to form a market reversal, current Shanghai rubber reintegration of vulnerable. Late concerned about the weather conditions in Thailand Songkran Festival (April 13) whether there is rainfall, if it continues to stop rain Shanghai rubber the bottom of some support once the rains cut gradually from north to south into the open market will further suppress. And the market bearish expected significantly around the downstream state of mind, the the downstream enterprise procurement market is still cautious, Shanghai rubber again approaching the previous low of 21,800 front-line technical correction, the dollar index overnight, the rubber is in shock hit new lows in the process, the current rebound in the short-term technical repair It can be expected, but the mid-market is still not optimistic.
Either the futures market or spot market, the market price continued to fall, fundamentals, supply is increasing year by year, while demand has increased, but the bounce rate is not enough.
Impact of month Quotes factors in the future there are three: the first one is the macro policy changes; downstream demand growth; third producing countries Shouchu policy. Downstream demand, the explosive growth the unlikely financial attributes of natural rubber by the impact of macroeconomic policies, and production support for the glue country prop up the market policy, but these can only be short-term stimulus rubber market, but will ultimately back to the basics surface. Demand would pay attention to changes in the natural rubber stocks, expected next month in the 21800-24000 range concussion.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/13740.html
