MARKET COMMENTARY
Feeble overseas market coupled with weak fundamentals pressurized natural rubber to move south in the Indian market. RSS4 in the physical market retreated from a four month high while on NMCE, the commodity lost about two percent. Weak economic cues and lacklustre buying interest weighed heavily on the market mood even as arrival remained limited. Furthermore, widening gap between the local prices and the international will attract higher imports fusing stress for prices. Currently, Thai RSS3 grade is at its lowest since November 2009 while Malaysian SMR20 at a six month low despite ‘wintering’ season in these countries. In the mean time, TOCOM rubber futures resumed its downtrend. On Thursday, prices dwindled to a four and a half month low on demand worries. Amidst lofty stockpiles in China and Japan, weak jobs data from the US and holidays in China pondered overall emotions.
MARKET NEWS
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE declined, for the first time in nine weeks, by 1.1 per cen to 117,504 tonnes last week.
According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, natural rubber output among the member countries increased 3.1 per cent to 10.6 million tonnes in 2012.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 17.9 percent to 14,802 metric tons on March 20, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
Thailand’s Deputy Farm Minister says the govt. to decide upon extension of domestic rubber purchase program after monitoring the production rates when tapping resumes after the ‘wintering’ season.
Indonesia’s Trade Ministry to meet stakeholders and association on April 5 to discuss on fall in natural rubber prices and review exports.
Arunachal Pradesh govt allots Rs.10 crore to cultivate rubber in the state.
Thailand’s February rubber exports gain 0.2% on-year to 288,333 tons according to Ministry of Commerce.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Apr NMCE
Broad Trend: Seen weak.
Near Term: With prices breaking 16200 in the previous session, there is considerable weakness. Even though pullbacks to 16400 regions cannot be ruled out, prices may target 15900 or more.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16350-16420 |
16500-15900 |
16140/16050 |
|
16580/16770 |
|
15900/15750 |
|
16860/16950 |
|
15600-15500 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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