China’s March CPI significant downturn in, Shanghai rubber narrow range
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the March CPI data, CIP rose 2.1% in March; March, the country’s industrial producer prices (PPI), down 1.9% year-on-year, continuing a trend of decline. After the Spring Festival, the central bank has taken a strong control measures, which led directly to a decline in the price level in March, the central bank’s monetary policy on the price trend of decisive significance. On the other hand, PPI starting in March last year, has maintained a trend of year-on-year decline, the PPI fell much conduction effect on the CPI will also need further observation. The set of data should be said to belong to the medium-sized partial bullish effect on the stock market and commodities, lifting the market concerns about the central bank to further tighten liquidity, PPI continued to decline means that the domestic economy still exists the danger of slowing down.
Domestic Shanghai rubber, natural rubber slightly higher open within a narrow range, prices moved down slightly. Ultimately, ru1309 to close at 21,685 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday’s closing rate of reduction of 0.23%; Shanghai rubber index positions 232,000 hands, Masukura 12000 hand, turnover of 500,000 hand.
Spot, the Shanghai natural rubber market price higher, no significant changes in the market environment, business and more tentative offer. Offer as follows: Hainan private latex reported 21,000 yuan / ton; Thailand 3 # smoke film 17 tax reported 21,300 yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L plastic 17 tax 20600-20800 yuan / ton.
From the position structure, the main long and short of natural rubber today continue to Masukura total open interest has been close to 12 million in hand, market concentration further improved, but today the main Zengcang slight advantage; market more obvious opposition, the market outlook will have a greater fluctuations. In the medium term, to maintain before judgment, natural rubber supply pressure is still large, high inventories and lower demand did not change significantly, the fundamentals of natural rubber rose does not seem to support. Short term, however, pre-natural rubber decreased continuously for too long, the negative factors in the market has been basically are digested, and natural rubber technical oversold situation is more serious; may rebound in the short term.
Industry, according to the the ANRPC latest report, all Member States ANRPC natural rubber production increased by 3% to 10,640,000 tons. , Thailand’s natural rubber production in 2012 was 3,778,000 tons, an increase of about 6%. 2012 Indonesia’s natural rubber production increased by 8.2% to 3.26 million tons. Expected natural rubber production in 2013, 84.3 million tons, 95.1 million tons in India. The first quarter of 2013 is expected to ANRPC natural rubber production (Thailand, Indonesia excluded) year-on-year by 1.7% to 712,300 tons.
The export side, all the member countries of the ANRPC natural rubber exports grew by 5.3% to 820 million tons, which Thailand exports 312 million tons. Expected in the first quarter of 2013, ANRPC natural rubber export volume (Thailand, Indonesia, excluded) to 56 million tons.
Operation, close to the end of the downward trend, rising trend has not yet formed, it is recommended that the steady trend of investors to wait and see, should not rush to admission chase sell; aggressive investors can buy on dips around 21600 ru1309 days buy low sell.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/13848.html
