April 23, domestic commodity nearly fell across the board. The Shanghai Futures natural rubber futures (referred to “Shanghai rubber”) among the top decliners, Shanghai rubber 1309 contract closed at 18,465 yuan per ton, down 495 yuan over the previous day, a decrease of 2.61%.
Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rubber futures fell slightly yesterday, rubber futures contract for September delivery closed at 249.4 yen per kg.
Previously, the largest in the history of the Bank of Japan resorted to quantitative easing monetary policy, the substantial depreciation of the yen, making the strong trend of the Japanese rubber. The analyst said: “yen since October last year to now, just six months already fallen more than 26%. Affected by this, despite the weak fundamentals, rubber stocks rising, poor downstream rixiche sales, but in the currency under the influence of policy on plastic rose sharply.
On April 22, the Group of 20 (G20) meeting did not publicly discuss the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, triggering the recent depreciation of the yen, the U.S. dollar against the yen the day was approaching the 100 level. Analysts expect the U.S. dollar against the yen after a short stay at the 100 level will rise above the mark. With the depreciation of the yen, Japan rubber futures prices will be upward.
While on rubber prices upward expected, but the market believes that the the Shanghai rubber is still subject to the domestic rubber market fundamentals.
Demand from the domestic point of view, the Automobile Association data show that China’s auto sales in March were 2,085,200 and 2,035,100, an increase of 10.88% and 10.69%. Heavy truck sales also rebounded, the downstream demand has shown signs of improvement.
However, the increase in demand at the same time, supply is also increasing. At present, China’s Hainan, Yunnan rubber producing areas have entered the open cut of the new plastic are being listed. May, natural rubber producing countries will also enter the tapping period. Thailand joined the ranks of the supply, in June, Thailand monthly spot market will provide 30 million tons of plastic, followed by Malaysia and Vietnam will also be to the market on a monthly basis to provide more than 70,000 tons of new plastic. Over time, the market supply will increase significantly.
Previously, due to oversupply, the rubber market has been hoarding a high inventory. Increased supply faster, rubber stocks will continue to increase in rubber prices suppressed.
Recently, Qingdao Free Trade Zone of natural rubber stocks have hit record highs. As of April 15, the Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks totaled 366,900 tons, compared to 29 March 8300 tons, natural rubber was 208,800 tons, synthetic rubber was 5.36 million tons, composite rubber of 10.45 million tons. Exchange stocks also rise, as of April 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange designated delivery warehouse, natural rubber futures warehouse of 71,330 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons compared to 11,710 tons in the same period in 2012; stock Subtotal about 12 million tons, compared to the same period in 2012, an increase of approximately 101,000 tons.
The substantial increase in inventories reflects the easing of supply and demand situation. Analysts believe that the bull market to see demand for the bear market to see the supply of the commodity markets in a bear market, the Shanghai rubber in the context of increasing market supply, even by the impact of the Japanese rubber rebound in the short-term behavior, persistent rise in probability is not high, is expected to Shanghai plastic interim or Tandi to 17,500 yuan per ton cost near the line.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/14136.html
