1. Institutional perspective
1.1 In July 2018, the official manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. It was above the Rongfu line for 24 consecutive months, but hit a five-month low. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July 2018, the China Purchasing Managers Index continued to be in the boom zone. Affected by the frequent high-temperature typhoon in recent years, coupled with the warming of international trade friction and the entry of some industries into the traditional production off-season, the purchasing managers’ index has experienced some fluctuations, but the operation is basically stable, and China’s economy continues to maintain its overall expansion momentum. The main features of this month: First, most industries in the manufacturing industry continue to expand. Second, supply and demand continued to grow, and the growth rate slowed down. Third, the level of household consumption has increased, and the consumer goods manufacturing industry has accelerated its expansion. Fourth, the price increase has declined, and some companies have reduced their cost pressures.
2. Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the China National Information Center, said that from the US dollar import and export data in July, it was better than expected, indicating that the impact of the trade war is now more psychological than the actual impact. In the first batch of tariff increases in July, China’s expansion of imports and tax cuts also helped companies expand imports, so the overall trade data in July showed a good trend. This also reflects the economic improvement of the countries including the United States and the European Union, which made China’s exports exceed expectations in July, and the increase in imports, in addition to China’s reduction of tariffs, also shows that domestic demand is booming, not as pessimistic as expected, in policy play After the advance amount, it is estimated that the macro data will not be too bad in the second half of the year. However, the evolution of the Sino-US trade war still has a direct impact on the subsequent import and export, especially the psychological level.
2. This website view
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2.1 From the comparison of economic data PMI, PPI and natural rubber and rubber industry, according to data monitoring, the changes in the economic environment also affect the development of the rubber industry, and the trend of each link is basically the same. In July, China’s manufacturing PMI index fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The domestic natural rubber price index fell by 4.935% in July, while the synthetic rubber price index rose by 6.19%. The fundamentals are weak, the natural rubber market is sideways at the bottom in July, and the synthetic rubber is supported by the dual factors of cost and supply, and the price is widened. Affected by national environmental protection policies, high summer production limits and trade wars, the downstream market demand is flat, and the rubber market has a poor trading atmosphere.
2.2 In early August, the natural rubber market rebounded in a narrow range. Due to the loose macro policy of the country, the recovery of commodity market sentiment, chemical products, blacks and other rounds rose, rubber futures increased positions, the long-term premiums increased, and the main contract quickly changed the month. Hujiao’s main 1901 contract rose to a maximum of 12,740 points, regaining the decline caused by Sino-US trade friction on June 19. Fundamentally, there is more rain in the main producing areas, which affects the supply of raw materials in the local period, as well as the depreciation of the RMB, the increase in the cost of imported rubber, and the suppression of importers’ intention to replenish goods. However, the domestic market has abundant spot resources and supply pressure remains. On the demand side, as the temperature decreases, the factory start-up load will theoretically recover, and the market purchase may improve in late August.
International macro environment analysis
1. Institutional perspective
1.1 The tariff policy brought uncertainty to the economy. The US Congress Office (CBO) slightly lowered its economic growth forecast for the second half of the year, and believed that the Fed’s rate hike may slow down. In the latest economic outlook released on August 13, CBO unexpectedly lowered its real GDP forecast for the US economy to 3.1% in 2018, and the previous forecast for April was 3.3%. CBO is worried that the trade war will have a high inflation rate that will hurt economic growth. Under the influence of the slowdown in corporate investment and government spending growth, the GDP growth rate in 2019 is expected to be 2.4%, which is the same as last time; the growth rate in 2020 is expected to decrease by 0.1 percentage point to 1.7%. However, even if GDP growth is expected to decline, it is expected to maintain growth above 3% in 2018, the first time in 2005.
1. On October 10th, US President Trump announced that he would impose 20% and 50% tariffs on Turkey’s aluminum and steel respectively. The Turkish lira rushed to the peak. On the same day, Lira plunged nearly 20% against the US dollar, and Turkey fell into emerging markets. The worst currency crisis in history. The collapse of the Turkish currency has caused market panic to continue to spread. On August 13, the Asia-Pacific stock market fell collectively, and emerging market currencies were also hit hard. In the short term, emerging market currencies are still facing a severe test. In the long run, the impact on emerging market countries will be weak and weak, and the lira’s sharp fall is difficult to undermine the positive fundamentals of some emerging market countries.
2. This website view
2.1 Affected by the fermentation of the Turkish crisis, safe-haven funds turned to favor the US dollar, US debt and other assets, and the US dollar appreciated. In addition, the trade war also provides support for the dollar. Concerned about the Fed’s September interest rate meeting, the market had expected the Fed to raise interest rates again in September and December this year. A stronger US dollar has increased the cost of imported goods. About 80% of China’s natural rubber is imported, and its market price will rise. In addition, the US intends to increase the tariff rate imposed on China’s imports of 200 billion US dollars from 10% to 25%, including some tires and rubber products, which will have certain impact on China’s rubber market.
2.2 From the comparison of crude oil and Japanese rubber, Hujiao, and the comparison of Hujiao and natural rubber spot and synthetic rubber, all links have certain relevance. From mid-July to mid-August, international crude oil prices fell in a narrow range. Due to the overall selling pressure, short-term international oil prices are difficult to achieve effective rebound. In the short term, the oil price operation range is expected to be between 66-70 US dollars/barrel. Due to the weak fundamentals of natural rubber, it has restricted the overall market trend. In recent months, the impact of crude oil price trends on the natural rubber market has been significantly weakened.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/45032.html
