Pimco’s CEO Sees 55% Chance of Slowdown Over Next Two Years

(Bloomberg) — The chances of an economic slowdown are low in the next 12 months but more than even — 55 percent — within the next two years, according to Emmanuel “Manny” Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.

The economy is relatively healthy now, especially in the U.S. and China, with the odds of a recession in 12 months about 15 percent to 20 percent, Roman said Friday in a webcast interview in New York with David Solomon, the incoming CEO of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:). But the possibility of rising inflation from a tight labor market or other causes could spur the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate hikes, which could put the brakes on economic growth, according to Roman.

“The risk is that somehow we got something wrong,” he said. “Either there’s more inflation than we think there is or either unemployment goes down really dramatically and the labor market becomes very, very tight.”

Pimco, a unit of Allianz (DE:) SE, oversees more than $1.7 trillion in assets. Roman worked for Goldman for 18 years and headed Man Group Plc before he was named Pimco’s CEO in 2016.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.