In late April, the main rubber producing heavy rains due to the weather, the impact of natural rubber tapping process, since May, natural rubber is temporarily out of the pre-unilateral downward trend, there has been a rebound. Then involved in the supply pressure diminished, natural rubber maintains interval concussion. As of May 23, 1309 closing rubber main 19,390 yuan / ton. Trading volume and open interest volume has shown a significant growth. After showing early fall, trading gradually restored.
From the influencing factors, the first rubber supply pressures. Rubber production to maintain growth, according to ANRPC latest report shows that in 2013 a quarter, is expected to rubber production up by 1.7% to 712,300 tons. Export volume of 560,000 tons. Do not change the global output growth.With the major producing countries cut open season gradually into the new year incremental supply will become more apparent, the market for the output of raw materials inventory will further increase the pressure. The Southeast Asian countries and around the increasing production of rubber prices continued to decline, the future is very price-related measures introduced concern. Meanwhile, the rubber into the centralized open cut stage,
Downstream demand improved. China’s rubber imports surge, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in March 2013, China’s imports of natural rubber (including latex) 230,000 tons, 150,000 tons last month, an increase of 53.3%, compared with 190,000 a year earlier t increase of 21.1%. 1-3 months, total imports of natural rubber is 63 million tons, representing an increase of 31.7% over the same period last year. Synthetic aspects, in March 2013, China’s imports of synthetic rubber (including latex) 147,733 tons, compared with 102,368 tons in February increased by 44.3% to 134,590 tons a year earlier, an increase of 9.8%.January-March, synthetic rubber total imports amounted to 393,331 tons, representing an increase of 9.3 percent over the same period last year.
Downstream automobile market now signs of improvement. The Automobile Association released data show that car sales in the first quarter, China’s auto sales in March were 2,085,200 and 2,035,100, a record high, an increase of 10.88% and 10.69%. Among them, passenger car sales 1,657,000 and 1,585,500, an increase by 13.82% and 13.25%; commercial vehicle sales were 428,200 and 449,600, representing a slight increase of 0.81% and 2.51%.January-March, car sales 5,397,100 and 5,424,500, an increase of 12.81 percent and 13.18 percent, an increase over the previous two months slowed.Where commercial vehicle sales 1,013,900 and 1,001,400, representing a slight increase of 0.08 percent yield, sales are down 1.72%, compared with last year, ending production decline, sales decline continued to slow down.
Looking ahead, fell sharply in March and April of downside risks have greatly HuJiao release. The new gum listing also appear reluctant to sell because the price is low mood, the whole industry chain of natural rubber apparent undervalued. However, due to the global natural rubber bumper and cut supply currently in the newly opened market, and demand for the next few months will step into the traditional off-season, the recent rise in prices is still rebounding treatment. Recommend close attention to the weight HuJiao 21000-23000 bit short rallies can be a single attempt.
