MCX Natural Gas likely to move in a range of 183.7-194.1

Technically MCX Natural Gas is getting support at 186.6 and below same could see a test of 183.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 191.8, a move above could see prices testing 194.1.

Natural Gas on MCX settled down 0.79% at 189.40 despite International Natural gas prices where trading higher in reaction to guidance that shows the emergence of a new weather system that is expected to bring cold to key demand regions in the United States this week-end.

Some forecasts are also showing that the cold temperatures could potentially extend into March. Prices on MCX dropped as Rupee strengthened against the US dollar after key macroeconomic data.

The price action was volatile, but gains were muted after a gap-higher opening because spot gas prices were mixed. Activity in the spot market could remain subdued the remainder of the week until the cold hits this week-end. This could keep a lid on prices until after Thursday’s government storage report.

According to NatGasWeather for February 12 to February 18, “A fast moving weather system will bring rain, snow and ice across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and East Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a mild break late in the week.

The West will be cool to cold and unsettled. The southern U.S. will be mild to warm with highs of 60s to 80s, although cooling Friday thru Saturday. This weekend and next weekend will see cold air across much of the U.S. with lows of -10s to 20s North and 20s to 40s over the South.

Overall, national demand will be moderate through Thursday, then back to high Friday thru Sunday.” Cold is forecast for the week-end, but it’s not expected to have that big of an impact on the storage deficit.

Trading Ideas:
–Natural Gas trading range for the day is 183.7-194.1.
–Natural Gas dropped amid rising production offset forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand than previously expected next week.
–U.S. dry natural gas production will rise to an all-time high of 90.16 billion cubic feet per day in 2019 from a record high of 83.26 bcfd in 2018.
–EIA also projected U.S. gas consumption would rise to an all-time high of 82.53 bcfd in 2019 from a record high 81.68 bcfd in 2018.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities