According to the seasonal law, in early February, Vietnam and northern Thailand entered a period of cessation. In mid-February, southern Thailand, Malay Peninsula, and the northern part of Indonesia’s equator, mainly in Medan, entered the period of stoppage. In March, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia are basically in the period of stoppage, while the domestic Yunnan producing areas will be cut in the middle and late March. It is understood that the rubber trees in Cambodia have already grown new leaves, and they will be opened at the end of March. However, the domestic volume is not large. From the perspective of the production of the nine major producing regions in the world, we entered the cycle of continued decline in March.
As far as the profit from the processing of tobacco sheets is concerned, the processing plants still have profits, and they are in the middle-to-high level in recent years. Judging from the price difference between glue and cup rubber, after the previous increase, the current price difference has returned to the level above 5 baht/kg. From the perspective of price difference, there is no obvious imbalance. The situation of tight raw materials has improved.
In February, because the downstream demand has not yet started, after the price rise, the process of passive de-banking began. According to our understanding, the amount of domestic arrivals in February is relatively large. The large domestic imports in February may cause port inventories to continue to increase, and the current rubber inventories basically remain in the trade link, and the inventory has not flowed to the downstream. Therefore, in terms of comprehensive imports, domestic supply in March is not necessarily less than in February.
Downstream demand has entered the traditional peak season, and the policy of car going to the countryside will also have a certain boost.
In March, the Southeast Asian producing areas were in a low-yield stage, and the output was further reduced compared with that in February. However, due to the superimposed import factor, the arrival in Hong Kong in February was large, resulting in a continuous increase in out-of-area inventories. The total supply in March was not less than that in February. In February, it was also speculated that the three countries negotiated a reduction in exports and expected to reduce exports by 200,000-300,000 tons. The incident has already reacted on the futures disk, so the support from the supply side in March is not obvious. Focus on downstream demand, starting in March is the time of the traditional downstream peak season, demand will rebound from February, but if there is no unexpected consumption performance, the price of March continues to rise in limited space, focusing on the trend of spot prices The spot is weak, causing the current price difference to re-expand, or the node at which the futures price is repressed. Before the spread does not widen, the price is strong or can still be maintained. Based on the rubber price rebound in February, the supply side support is weakening, and the demand side is also seasonally improved. We are not very optimistic about the March rubber price trend, and pay more attention to the pressure after the price rebounds.
Strategy: cautiously bearish
Risk: The macro is warmer, the downstream demand is obviously improved, the natural speculation in the production area and the supply end disturbance.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/47904.html
