MARKET COMMENTARY
As the week’s session culminates, TOCOM rubber futures jumped to a six week high and is probably poised to post the best weekly gain in ten, bolstered by a weaker Japanese currency and rise in crude oil prices. SHFE rubber futures gained as well. Sharp advances in the trendsetting TOCOM rubber futures in the backdrop of fall in production and scanty arrivals are likely to prop up natural rubber prices in the local market too. Last day, NMCE rubber futures were seen reversing initial losses during the afternoon trades to end the session more than one per cent higher. However, in the physical market, RSS4 traded rather steady near Rs.191 a kg. Widening gap between prices prevailing in the local and international market has been keeping a lid on gains. Meanwhile, latex (drc 60%) prices continued its northward journey.
MARKET NEWS
According to International Rubber Study Group, natural rubber surplus for 2013 is likely to be at 92000-284000 tonnes. World consumption of natural rubber is seen rising by 2.0-5.0 per cent compared to the previous estimate of 2.3-5.9 per cent rise.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and exporter, is asking other major producers Malaysia and Indonesia to help it set a benchmark rubber export price, which has fallen by almost a fifth since its peak this year due to weak demand.
Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity fell to 330,300 metric tons today, from 341,900 tons on June 28 according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.
The Rubber Board sets target of bringing 4.5 lakh hectares of land under rubber cultivation in the north eastern region.
According to Rubber Board, natural rubber imports into India fell 4.97 percent on year to 19,695 tonnes in June, while production also fell 12.9 percent to 54,000 tonnes in the same period. Consumption declined 2.3 percent to 82,000 tonnes in June.
Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9.0 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Aug NMCE
Even as prices penetrated the stiff resistance of 19000 in the previous session, it requires sustaining above the same to continue the buying momentum to 19250 or more to 19500 levels. Alternatively, inability to hold 18500-18400 ranges downside may see weakness creeping in.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 19000/19250 | 19000-18400-18000 | 18800-18700 |
| 19500-19630 | 18500/18400 | |
| 19750-19800 | 18200-18100 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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